ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Future Transp.
Sec. Transport Safety
Risk Propagation Modeling and Integrated Risk Control Method for Apron Management Systems
Provisionally accepted
- 1Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China
- 2Jiangxi Branch of China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, Nanchang, China
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The apron control system is characterized by a long operational chain, a complex and dynamic environment, multiple potential conflict nodes, and strong interdependence among risk factors. As a result, it is one of the subsystems within the air traffic control system with a relatively high incidence of unsafe events. This paper proposes an integrated risk control method for apron management systems based on risk propagation. First, a grey Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (grey FMEA) combined with the concept of diminishing marginal effects is introduced to identify and evaluate key risk factors. On this basis, a risk cross-transmission model is constructed to capture the propagation characteristics of risks in the complex system. Subsequently, a security risk control model with the objective of minimizing overall system risk is developed by integrating the results of risk analysis and risk evaluation. Finally, the implementation steps of the proposed risk control method are presented in detail. A case study demonstrates that the optimal control scheme obtained from the model can effectively reduce the risk levels of both the system and its major risk factors to an acceptable range, thereby achieving the intended goal of enhancing apron operational safety.
Keywords: Apron control, apron management system, Complex System, risk control, Risk transfer
Received: 24 Jan 2026; Accepted: 04 Feb 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Lu, Jiang, Fu and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Furong Jiang
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