Oceanographic and trophodynamic underpinnings of anchovy success in the northern California Current

Kelsey Shea Swieca^1,2*Su Sponaugle^1,2Moritz Schmid²Jami Ivory²Robert K Cowen²

• ¹Department of Integrative Biology, College of Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States
• ²Hatfield Marine Science Center, Oregon State University, Newport, Oregon, United States

Globally, anchovy and sardine typically display asynchronous population fluctuations with anchovy dominating during cool periods and sardine dominating during warm periods. However, this anchovy-sardine cold-warm paradigm has recently broken down in the California Current, suggesting that recruitment may not be a simple product of large-scale physical drivers. Instead, consideration of larval fish trophodynamics together with local oceanography is likely necessary to mechanistically relate survival and recruitment to the physical environment. We examined otolith-derived metrics of northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) growth in the context of local oceanography and anchovy in situ prey and zooplankton predators in the northern California Current (NCC). Anchovy growth was spatially variable and the regions that conferred heighted growth differed with regard to the crossshelf extent of upwelled waters. When upwelling was restricted to the nearshore environment, anchovy larvae grew significantly faster inshore than offshore. Conversely, when the upwelling front moved farther offshore following sustained upwelling, offshore anchovy larvae grew significantly faster than inshore larvae. Modelling individual anchovy growth revealed that growth was affected by ambient copepod prey availability and gelatinous zooplankton predation pressure, with growth peaking at intermediate prey availability and the highest abundance of predators. Fast growth under high predation pressure may be indicative of the selective loss of slow growing larvae. Notably, larval anchovy abundances were high offshore but diminished immediately inshore of the upwelling front regardless of its cross-shelf position. This suggests that the upwelling front may act as a shoreward boundary for anchovy larvae, affecting their access to the highly nutritious prey base typical of the Oregon continental shelf waters in summer. Variation in larval anchovy growth with local oceanographic conditions and fine-scale distributions of prey and predators provides a mechanistic hypothesis of food-web dynamics which will enhance our ability to predict the response of forage fishes to ecosystem variability.