ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Marine Ecosystem Ecology
A Three-Dimensional Bioenergetic Population Model of Anchovy and Sprat in the Black Sea. Hindcast (1960-2020) and sensitivity simulations.
Provisionally accepted
- Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
This study presents the development of a three-dimensional, Wisconsin-type bioenergetic/ population model, two-way coupled with a biogeochemical model (POM-ERSEM) that simulates physical, chemical, and biological processes in the marine environment, to investigate the dynamics of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus)—the two most ecologically and economically significant fish species in the Black Sea. The model simulates key energetic processes, including growth and reproduction, and, in conjunction with the population module, it was used to estimate the two species biomass spatiotemporal variability. A long-term simulation over 1960–2020 period was performed, using ECMWF ERA5 atmospheric forcing. The model successfully reproduces the interannual variability in both species’ stocks and highlights the formation of distinct anchovy and sprat habitats. To explore the effects of atmospheric forcing, a perpetual simulation for the same period was conducted. The analysis reveals a negative correlation between sea surface temperature and anchovy biomass, primarily due to reduced adult weight and increased energetic demands, which negatively impact productivity. In contrast, sprat populations exhibit a positive response to warming, with increased survival rates across life stages despite a decline in egg productivity due to habitat limitations. Furthermore, the study examines the species responses to varying fishing pressure. While both species and especially sprat, are threatened by overfishing, they demonstrate rapid recovery rates, indicating susceptibility to effective management measures. These findings provide valuable insights into the sustainable exploitation of anchovy and sprat under changing climatic conditions, aiding in the development of adaptive fisheries management strategies.
Keywords: 3-D (Three dimensional) Bioenergetic Population Model, Anchovy, Black Sea, Climate Change, Fisheries, sprat
Received: 15 Apr 2025; Accepted: 26 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Gkanasos, Tsiaras and Triantafyllou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Athanasios Gkanasos
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.