ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Coastal Ocean Processes
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1631041
This article is part of the Research TopicPrediction of Coastal Morphological Evolution in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation and Nature-Based EngineeringView all 4 articles
A probabilistic methodology for the projection of flooding and erosion processes in the coastal zones of Andalusia (Spain) throughout the 21st century
Provisionally accepted
Pedro Otiñar Morillas1,2
Manuel Cobos Budia1,2*
Marcus Silva de Santana1,2
Agustín Millares Valenzuela1,2
Asunción Baquerizo Azofra1,2- 1Environmental Fluid Dynamics Group, Andalusian Institute for Earth System Research (IISTA), Granada, Spain
- 2University of Granada, Granada, Spain
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We propose a general methodology to obtain joint probabilistic projections of coastal erosion and flooding in a climate change scenario, spanning decadal timescales and spatial extents of hundreds of kilometres. It has been implemented for the period of 2025 -2100 along over 290 km of the Mediterranean Andalusian coast (Spain), characterized by a semiarid climate where there is a variety of coastal morphologies that include deltaic systems, natural pocket and headland bay beaches as well as other coastal landforms created in the shelter of marine structures. The methodology integrates: (1) the random character of climate and its intrinsic variability with a non-stationary multimodel ensemble approach; (2) the combined effect of maritime and hydrological events on the coast; (3) the availability of sediment and its 3D spatial layout, as well as its granulometry and degree of consolidation; (4) the sediment supply from rivers and ephemeral watercourses and (5) the presence of infrastructures that interfere with the hydrodynamic and sedimentary processes, such as dams in the river course, harbours, breakwaters, buildings and promenades. The methodology adequately emulates erosion and sedimentation patterns across various temporal scales, from individual events to long-term trends. Results for the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway scenario known as RCP 8.5 are illustrated at Guainos Beach, where it is found that the coastline adjusts to evolving wave climate conditions and sea level rise, exhibiting a decreasing trend in beach area primarily associated with sea level rise with intra-annual fluctuations superimposed during the early decades. Over time, the role of wave climate diminishes, and sea level rise becomes the dominant force, with a noticeable shift in the relative influence of forcings occurring around 2045 -2050. Compound flooding analysis reveals strong monthly variability in flood probability, especially at the river mouth and adjacent low-lying areas.
Keywords: Coastal erosion, coastal flooding, climate change impact, uncertainty assessment, hydro and morphodynamic processes
Received: 19 May 2025; Accepted: 05 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Otiñar Morillas, Cobos Budia, Silva de Santana, Millares Valenzuela and Baquerizo Azofra. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Manuel Cobos Budia, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
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