ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Coastal Ocean Processes
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1631047
This article is part of the Research TopicPrediction of Coastal Morphological Evolution in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation and Nature-Based EngineeringView all 5 articles
Statistical characterization of projected flooding and erosion processes for coastal management
Provisionally accepted- 1University of Granada, Granada, Spain
- 2Environmental Fluid Dynamics Group, Andalusian Institute for Earth System Research (IISTA), Granada, Spain
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We present a procedure for the stochastic characterization of erosion and flooding, aimed at supporting informed management decision-making using projections under a climate change scenario, based on the methodology proposed by Otiñar et al. (2025). The approach focuses on a comprehensive collection of random sets defined in accordance with the Spanish regulatory framework and the needs of the regional administrative authority responsible for granting permits and concessions for the use and/or occupation of land within the public maritime-terrestrial domain in Andalusia (Spain). The study analyses the spatial and temporal variability of these random sets in probabilistic terms across different time horizons. These time frames are introduced to harmonize the definitions and criteria established in legal texts with the mandate to account for climate change impacts. Statistical analyses are also conducted for both peak and off-peak tourist seasons, as well as on annual time scales, to support managerial decision-making based on the specific characteristics of the coastal management issues at hand, including their potential seasonal nature. The results, obtained for the provinces of Granada and Almería along the Mediterranean Andalusian coast for the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP 8.5), underscore the importance of considering specific time horizons-and, when relevant, seasonal variability-when authorizing uses and concessions in coastal zones. In this regard, it was found that by 2100, 40% of beaches in the studied provinces are projected to lose over 80% of their dry beach area during the off-peak tourist season, with only 33% of them failing to recover by the tourist season. This highlights the importance of considering natural recovery capacities in coastal management to potentially avoid drastic interventions. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the high sensitivity of the parameters currently used in Spanish legislation to define the public maritime-terrestrial domain and to identify areas of severe coastal regression, along with their implications along the coastline.
Keywords: Coastal erosion, coastal flooding, climate change impact, uncertainty assessment, Informed Decision Making
Received: 19 May 2025; Accepted: 12 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Otiñar Morillas, Cobos Budia, Silva de Santana and Baquerizo Azofra. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Manuel Cobos Budia, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
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