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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Mar. Sci.

Sec. Ocean Observation

Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1632410

FS-STFNet: A Few-Shot Adaptive Spatiotemporal Fusion Network for Short-term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Provisionally accepted
Mengjiao  QinMengjiao Qin1*Jingqi  WangJingqi Wang1Yanshuo  WuYanshuo Wu1Yuhan  ZhangYuhan Zhang1Wuxia  LinWuxia Lin1Shoujuan  ShuShoujuan Shu2
  • 1Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
  • 2Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction is a critical task in disaster prevention and mitigation. Due to the high complexity and incomplete evolution mechanism, the accurate prediction of TC intensity remains a challenge. This study proposes a Few-Shot Spatiotemporal Fusion Network (FS-STFNet) to improve short-term TC intensity prediction under limited data. A spatial enhancement module is designed to adaptively fuse and enhance features from multi-source data (i.e. trajectories, atmospheric reanalysis, and satellite imagery). Then, an autoregressive deep learning model with enhanced spatiotemporal transformation equation is designed for short-term intensity prediction of single TC without relying large number of temporal training samples. A test applying the FS-STFNet to TCs in Northwest Pacific from 2019 to 2021 demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority compared to other methods. The model achieves optimal performance during stable TCs structures while effectively reducing biases for weak TCs or topography-affected cases through adaptive adjustments. This work offers a scalable technical framework for extreme weather forecasting in temporal data-scarce scenarios, supporting disaster preparedness.

Keywords: Tropical intensity, Spatiotemporal forecasting, Multivariate fusion, few-shot, spatial information enhancement

Received: 21 May 2025; Accepted: 04 Aug 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Qin, Wang, Wu, Zhang, Lin and Shu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Mengjiao Qin, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China

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