Do New-Quality Productive Forces Empower the High-Quality Development of the Marine Economy? Evidence from A Structural Equation Model

Jiamin Lu¹Bing He^2*

• ¹School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, China
• ²School of Business, Jiangsu Ocean Universiity, Lianyungang, China

Marine-oriented New-Quality Productive Forces (NQPFs), characterized by efficiency, sustainability, and innovation, are increasingly emerging as core drivers of the High-Quality Development of the Marine Economy (HQDME) and advancing the transition toward ecological sustainability. They play a vital role in mitigating nearshore pollution, enhancing ecological resilience, and expanding blue carbon sinks. Using panel data from 11 coastal provinces and municipalities in China from 2013 to 2024, this study constructs a structural equation model to examine how NQPFs empower HQDME and assess the significance and strength of their pathways. This study aims to extract interpretable empowerment chains and to propose corresponding policy chains based on them. The findings reveal that: (1) NQPFs exert a significant positive impact on HQDME, functioning through both direct and indirect pathways and highlighting an integrated system-empowerment pattern characterized by “structure–mechanism–outcome” alignment, while effectively reducing resource consumption intensity and pollution emissions. (2) In the direct pathways, the empowerment effects of laborers on industrial integration, objects of labor on resource utilization, and all three core elements of NQPFs on the marine economy are prominent, jointly establishing a direct support chain centered on “element synergy–function enhancement–coordinated growth.” (3) In the indirect pathways, an indirect transmission chain centered on “element coupling–system interaction–transmission amplification” is constructed through the high-degree coupling of internal elements within NQPFs and the progressive interaction of internal elements within HQDME, further contributing to environmental pressure alleviation and ecological restoration. (4) NQPFs empower HQDME through four interrelated chains: technological innovation, structural optimization, talent support, and green transformation, ultimately forming a closed-loop response system that effectively links mechanism identification with policy intervention. This study provides systematic empirical evidence and governance insights for enhancing marine ecosystem service capacity, accelerating the development of a low-carbon and circular marine economy, and achieving the long-term vision of harmonious coexistence between humans and the ocean.