ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Marine Affairs and Policy
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1687230
Evaluation and Prediction of Marine Eco-Economic Sustainable Development using the CDGM(1,1)-DPSIR Model
Provisionally accepted
- Shandong University, Weihai, Weihai, China
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The marine ecological economy has emerged as one of the most dynamic and promising sectors for economic expansion in coastal nations and regions. Its development is vital for fostering sustained, balanced and resilient economic growth. To enhance the precision of predictions and assessments of the marine eco-economic system, thereby supporting sustainable marine economic development, this study proposes a corrected discrete grey model (CDGM(1,1)) incorporating dynamic adjustment mechanisms. The model is further integrated with the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework to establish a comprehensive forecasting and evaluation methodology. By introducing the concept of "grey effective information" and refining the probability accumulating generation operator (P-AGO), the approach effectively extracts critical information from data sequences. For datasets containing periodic patterns, a discrete GM(1,1) variant based on dynamic local accumulation is employed, allowing for combined forecasting. Finally, with the DPSIR framework and using the TOPSIS method, China's marine economic data from 2010 to 2026 are analysed. The prediction accuracy improved by 84% compared with traditional GM(1,1). The results demonstrate not only the effectiveness of marine ecological protection and economic development strategies but also elucidate the synergistic interplay of industrial growth, ecological feedback and policy regulation within the system.
Keywords: Marine economy, CDGM(1,1), DPSIR, Sustainable development assessment, prediction
Received: 17 Aug 2025; Accepted: 29 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Dai, Chen, Liu, Gao and Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Lin Yang, yanglin0631@sdu.edu.cn
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