Natural marine risks in the Mediterranean context: A case study of coastal zone of Northern Morocco

Kamal Agharroud^1*Abdelkarim TADIBAGHT²Mohamed OUTISKT³Otman EL OUATY²Hanane REDDAD¹Abdelmounim EL M'RINI²Maria Snoussi⁴

• ¹UNIVERSITE HASSAN 2 FACULTE DES SCIENCES AIN CHOCK, Casablanca, Morocco
• ²Universite Abdelmalek Essaadi Faculte des Sciences, Tetouan, Morocco
• ³Universite Abdelmalek Essaadi Faculte des Sciences et Techniques de Tanger, Tangier, Morocco
• ⁴Universite Mohammed V de Rabat, Rabat, Morocco

Assessing natural marine risks in coastal zones is a complex challenge due to the interplay of multiple processes. This complexity arises because a single coastal area may face simultaneous hazards of both hydro-meteorological and seismotectonic origin. The convergence of terrestrial and marine processes in the Tangier-Tetouan-AlHoceima region, the focus of this study, can trigger catastrophic events, the severity of which is heightened in low-laying areas. To understand the threats this coastal zone faces from the Mediterranean Sea, this study assesses natural marine risks using a multi-criteria decision-making approach. The methodology employs a multi-scale Coastal Risk Index at a local-level, integrating both climate change and tectonic-related risks to produce comprehensive multi-risk maps. These maps pinpoint hotspot coastal zones where natural marine risks probability is greatest. The results indicate a high risk of loss of property and a moderate risk of loss of life from both tectonic and climate-related hazards. For tsunami hazards, up to 32% of the hazard zone is at a high risk of loss of property, but this figure is only up to 2% for loss of life. Concerning climate-related risks, 15% of the total threatened area faces a high risk of property loss, with an additional 15% at a moderate-to-high risk level. Multi-risk mapping shows that up to 30% of the hazard zone is characterized by high to very high levels of property loss risk. The city of Martil is identified as the most threatened area, a critical hotspot where the risks of tectonically-induced tsunamis and climate-induced coastal inundation intersect. Other key hotspots include the coasts of Fnideq, M'diq, Oued Laou, Stihat, and Ait Youssef Ou Ali. Importantly, the risk to human life remains low throughout the entire study area. This study also proposes some innovative solutions that could prove essential to address these risks. However, it should be noted that these solutions require long-term operational expenditures that could be a significant concern for decision-makers. Therefore, it suggests that a combination of hard engineering, nature-based solutions, and cost-effective ecological defenses, supported by public awareness and educational campaigns, could significantly improve preparedness for natural marine hazards in northern Morocco.