ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Intensive Care Medicine and Anesthesiology
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1603374
Prognostic Nomogram for Heat Stroke Patients Based on Rapidly Accessible Clinical Indicators
Provisionally accepted
- 1Emergency Department, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- 2Department of Emergency Medicine，West China Hospital，Sichuan University/West China School of Nursing，Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- 3Institute of Disaster Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- 4Nursing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
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To develop and validate a rapid-assessment scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality in heat stroke (HS) patients, thereby facilitating early identification and intervention for critical cases.We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of HS patients admitted to emergency department (ED) of 13 hospitals in southwest of China between July 1, 2022 and December 31, 2024. Clinical parameters including demographic data, initial vital signs, and major organ function biomarkers were systematically collected. Patients were further divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a 7:3 ratio. The primary endpoint was all-cause in-hospital mortality.Through rigorous variable selection using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression followed by multivariable logistic regression modeling, we developed a prognostic nomogram. Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) evaluation, with comparative benchmarking against established scoring systems (Sequential Organ Failure
Keywords: Heat stroke (HS), In-hospital mortality, Emergency Department (ED), nomogram, multiorgan damage
Received: 31 Mar 2025; Accepted: 15 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Xiao, Tang, Cheng, Hongguang, Zhang and Yao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Tianshan Zhang, Emergency Department, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
Rong Yao, Emergency Department, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
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