BRIEF RESEARCH REPORT article
Front. Space Technol.
Sec. Space Debris
This article is part of the Research TopicAdvances and Perspectives in Space TechnologiesView all articles
Conceptualizing Thresholds for Effective Active Debris Removal in Low Earth Orbit
Provisionally accepted
- New Trier High School, Winnetka, United States
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The rapid growth of orbital debris in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) poses an escalating risk to space operations, with existing mitigation proving insufficient to prevent long-term instability. This study models debris population dynamics in the 500-600km LEO under current FCC 5-year deorbit rules and varying levels of Active Debris Removal (ADR). Using publicly available orbital catalogs and a collision-risk proxy based on object density, cross-section, and relative velocity, simulations depict debris growth and collision risk trajectories under a 30-year period and various scenarios. Results indicate that removal of ~60 large objects (>10 cm) per year is the threshold at which debris growth becomes negative and collision risk declines. This value is scenario-dependent and is presented as an illustrative threshold under controlled assumptions rather than a robust or universal quantitative value. The primary contribution of this study is to demonstrate the existence of a minimum viable ADR regime, which can provide conceptual guidance for debris mitigation policy.
Keywords: Active debris removal (ADR), Debris mitigation, FCC (Federal Communications Commission), Kessler syndrome, low earth orbit (LEO), Policy recommendation
Received: 29 Dec 2025; Accepted: 26 Jan 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Sofia Yang
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