BRIEF RESEARCH REPORT article
Front. Water
Sec. Water Resource Management
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/frwa.2025.1617212
This article is part of the Research TopicTackling the Global Water Crisis: Risks, Challenges, and Sustainable SolutionsView all 6 articles
Comparative Analysis of Different Hydrological Models in Flood Forecasting for the Upper Juma River Basin
Provisionally accepted
- 1North China University of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China
- 2China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China
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Accurate flood forecasting is of critical importance for flood control and disaster mitigation.This study focuses on the upper basin of the Juma River and employs the China Flash Flood Hydrological Model (CNFF) to calibrate model parameters using three specific runoff generation models implemented within the CNFF platform: the Xin'anjiang three-source saturation-excess runoff model, the vertical mixed runoff model, and the Dahuofang model. These models respectively represent three distinct physical runoff mechanisms-saturation-excess, vertical mixing, and infiltration-excess. The primary scientific objective is to systematically compare the flood forecasting accuracy of these models and to identify the most suitable one for flood forecasting in this basin. The results indicate that the overall forecasting accuracy of the Xin'anjiang model is superior to that of the vertical mixed runoff model and the Dahuofang model. The absolute value of the relative error in peak discharge and the relative error in mean runoff depth simulated by theXin'anjiang model are 6.8% and 10.7%, respectively. The absolute value of the mean peak arrival time error is 0.47 h, and the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is 0.69.The Xin'anjiang model demonstrated superior performance, achieving an average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) approximately 0.21 higher than the other models across the evaluated events. When flood discharge is high and exhibits a single-peak pattern, the simulation performance of all runoff models improves.. These findings provide a reference for hydrological simulation, flood forecasting, and early warning in the upper Juma River basin.
Keywords: China Flash Flood Hydrological Model, Xin'anjiang model, Vertical mixed runoff model, Juma River, flood forecasting
Received: 24 Apr 2025; Accepted: 04 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Chai, Hao, Li and Tong. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Fuxin Chai, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, Beijing Municipality, China
Shilong Hao, North China University of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China
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