ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Water
Sec. Water Resource Management
Simulation of Water Resource Balance in Golmud River Basin Based on Mathematical Models
Provisionally accepted
- 1Laboratory of Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development in the Upper Yellow River, Qinghai Province, Xining, China
- 2School of Civil Engineering and Water Resources, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- 3Key Laboratory of Water Ecology Remediation and Protection at Headwater Regions of Big Rivers, Ministry of Water Resources, Xining, China
- 4Nuclear Industry Geology and Survey Bureau, Qinghai Provincial, Xining, China
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This study develops an integrated HEC-RAS–MODFLOW model coupled with a nonlinear evaporation module to simulate the water resource balance of the Golmud River Basin, an arid inland basin on the Tibetan Plateau, from 1990 to 2017. The model addresses limitations of previous linear evaporation approaches and isolated surface–groundwater simulations by incorporating dynamic exchange processes and multi-decadal climate variability. Results indicate that river seepage constitutes 63.0% of total groundwater recharge, while groundwater levels decline at an average rate of 0.10 m/year due to combined climatic variability and anthropogenic extraction. The nonlinear evaporation module reduced simulation errors by over 15% compared to conventional linear models. Sensitivity analysis identifies hydraulic conductivity and evaporation coefficients as key parameters influencing model reliability. Under current extraction trends, groundwater discharge to terminal wetlands is projected to decrease by 50% by 2030, threatening local ecosystems. The study provides a robust modeling framework for sustainable water management in arid basins, emphasizing the need for controlled groundwater extraction, water-saving irrigation practices, and maintenance of ecological flows to mitigate aquifer depletion and wetland degradation under climate and anthropogenic pressures.
Keywords: And inland basin, Coupled HEC-RAS-MODFLOW model, Groundwater recharge, Nonlinear evaporation module, Surface water-groundwater interaction, Water resource balance
Received: 18 Sep 2025; Accepted: 05 Feb 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Lu, Li, Xu and Wang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Runjie Li
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