ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Water
Sec. Water and Climate
This article is part of the Research TopicHydro-Climatic Variability: Impacts and Adaptation Pathways for Water Management and AgricultureView all articles
Impact of climate change on magnitude and extent of riverine floods in a Peruvian Andean-Amazonian basin
Provisionally accepted
Danny Saavedra Ore1,2,3*
Vinícius Alencar Siqueira4João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda4Carlos Millán-Arancibia1,5
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro1,2- 1Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (SENAMHI), Lima, Peru
- 2Programa de Doctorado en Recursos Hídricos, Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru
- 3Universidad Tecnologica de los Andes, Abancay, Peru
- 4Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
- 5Universidad de Ingenieria y Tecnologia, Lima District, Peru
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In the last two decades, approximately 2.15 million inhabitants in Peru were affected by floods, mainly concentrated in the Andean-Amazon basin, whose frequency has increased as a consequence of climate change. The objective of this research is to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the magnitude of frequent (2-year) flood flows and the extent of flooded areas in the Huallaga River basin (HRB). We used the hydrological and hydrodynamic model MGB and an approach to select four CMIP6 global climate models (GCM) representative of extreme conditions (Cold-dry, Cold-wet, Warm-dry, Warm-wet) for the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, analyzed in two future periods (2035-65 and 2069-99). The results show that the impacts on flood flows and flooded areas vary according to the selected GCM, with the largest increases concentrated in the headwater areas and along the main channel. Likewise, it was identified that the political provinces located in the north and center-west of the HRB present the greatest agreement in the increase in flooded area (between 7 and 8 models of a total of 8 models). These findings are relevant for territorial planning, disaster risk management and adaptation decision making cope to climate change.
Keywords: Climate Change, Flood hazard, Hydrological signatures, MGB model, Peruvian Amazon Basin
Received: 19 Sep 2025; Accepted: 12 Jan 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Saavedra Ore, Siqueira, Brêda, Millán-Arancibia and Lavado-Casimiro. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Danny Saavedra Ore
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