Enhancing understanding of vulnerability to climate change in rural territories of Tunisia: from local perceptions to a quantitative assessment

Abstract

Climate change represents today one of the most pressing environmental and socio-economic challenges facing humanity. However, its effect is uneven across regions, affecting most severely those whose populations depend directly on natural resources for their livelihood. Many studies have assessed climate vulnerability at national and regional levels, but there remains a lack of detailed analysis of how vulnerability manifests in rural areas and how it varies across local contexts, particularly in rural territories such as those in Tunisia. To address this gap, we investigate the vulnerability of local population to climate change in Rihana, a small rural territory in Sidi Bouzid governorate (Central Tunisia), through two complementary approaches. The first is a qualitative approach based on a participatory territorial diagnosis to assess the perception of climate change, current and future vulnerability; while the second is a quantitative approach based on the Climate Change vulnerability index_Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC). This methodology involves a comparative study of two Homogeneous Territorial Units (HTU) located upstream (HTU2) and downstream (HTU1) of the study area. The use of both qualitative and quantitative approaches provides a more comprehensive understanding of vulnerability, unlike other studies that limit themselves to a single approach and may therefore overlook certain crucial aspects. The results reveal that the local population in the study area perceives climate change as a threat to its main resources, particularly changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, drought and floods. Moreover, vulnerability levels vary significantly between the two areas, mainly due to differences in geographical position. The upstream part is more vulnerable (LVI-IPCC = 0.14), being more sensitive, more exposed and with a lower capacity to adapt, while the downstream part is less vulnerable (LVI-IPCC = 0.03). The results also show that households anticipate an increase in future vulnerability, with intensified soil erosion, declining rain-fed crops, growing water scarcity, and a heightened risk of rural exodus. Finally, this study confirms that even at small local scale vulnerability levels vary significantly so it's important to integrate local knowledge with scientific tools when analysing vulnerability at the local level.