ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Water
Sec. Water Resource Management
The Rise of Desalination Technology and the Decline of Türkiye's Peace Water Pipeline Project: A Case Study in Technological Disruption and Water Diplomacy
Akiko Sakamoto
Mikiyasu Nakayama
Global Infrastructure Fund Research Foundation Japan, Tokyo, Japan
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Abstract
This study challenges the conventional explanations for the failure of Türkiye's ambitious $21 billion Peace Water Pipeline Project (1986-1995) by demonstrating that technological disruption, rather than geopolitical obstacles, fundamentally undermined this transboundary water initiative. While traditional analyses emphasize political tensions, our research reveals that the concurrent rapid advancement of desalination technology decisively altered the strategic calculus of potential recipient nations, particularly Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Through a comparative case study analysis of Saudi Arabia and the UAE from 1985-1995, we document how these nations systematically rejected pipeline dependence in favor of a domestic desalination capacity that offered superior strategic autonomy, cost competitiveness, and operational flexibility. The study demonstrates that desalination technology improvements during this critical decade—including energy consumption reductions from 20-25 kWh/m³ to 8-12 kWh/m³ for reverse osmosis systems and production cost declines from $2.50-3.50/m³ to $1.00-1.50/m³—made domestic water production economically viable while eliminating dependencies inherent in transboundary pipeline projects. Our analysis reveals that Gulf states were willing to pay significant "sovereignty premiums" for water independence, gaining complete control over supply security and protection from political manipulation of water access. The findings contribute to a broader understanding of how technological innovation functions as an independent agent in international resource diplomacy, reshaping cooperative frameworks more decisively than traditional diplomatic negotiations. This case illuminates critical lessons for contemporary water security challenges, demonstrating how emerging technologies can rapidly obsolete large-scale infrastructure projects during their planning phases.
Summary
Keywords
Desalination innovation, Strategic resource autonomy, Technological disruption, Transboundary water politics, water diplomacy
Received
18 December 2025
Accepted
06 February 2026
Copyright
© 2026 Sakamoto and Nakayama. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*Correspondence: Akiko Sakamoto
Disclaimer
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.