Understanding Drought Propagation: Statistical Analysis, Physical Mechanisms and Anthropogenic Influence

Drought propagation describes modulations in the drought signals as they transit from the atmosphere to soils, rivers and aquifers. As such, the propagation process may be controlled by both climate and catchment attributes and is also affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities. Due to these complex interactions, region-specific characteristics, and nonstationarity in driving mechanisms, drought propagation modeling and forecasting are challenging, from both theoretical and applied perspectives. On the other hand, research on this topic is still mostly exploratory and may not provide a logical basis for attribution and risk assessment. In this sense, a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought propagation in different regions, which should include quantification, physical mechanisms, and human impacts, is paramount for defining strategies for drought mitigation and adaptation. Sound studies in this topic may support effective approaches to deal with drought impacts and water scarcity in the future.

This special issue aims to discuss novel approaches for improving the understanding on drought propagation through theoretical and exploratory research. Specifically, we intend to focus on novel statistical and physically-based models for drought propagation, alternative techniques for assessing physical influential mechanisms, drought propagation under climate change and land use changes, drought propagation in regulated catchments, relationships to water quality and ecological droughts, and flash droughts. We may also address alternative techniques for predicting times of propagation to different types of droughts, drought propagation forecasting, 3-dimensional methods, and probabilistic multivariate models for estimating propagation thresholds. Finally, we welcome submissions on the role of modeling and sampling uncertainty on drought propagation assessment, the use of alternative sources of information, such as remote sensing and reanalysis, for modeling drought propagation, and adaptation strategies and governance for future propagation scenarios.

The scope of this research topic encompasses, but is not limited to, the following topics:

- Spatial and temporal mechanisms for drought propagation

- Effects of feedback in drought propagation and intensification

- Anthropogenic effects on drought propagation

- Physical and anthropogenic factors affecting drought propagation

- Drought propagation and climate change

- Flash droughts

- Remote sensing tools for drought propagation

- Sampling and modeling uncertainty in drought propagation assessment

- Propagation thresholds

- Drought propagation forecasting

- Communities’ adaptation to changing droughts,

- Communicating drought risks,

- Seasonal-to-subseasonal drought assessment

Article types and fees

This Research Topic accepts the following article types, unless otherwise specified in the Research Topic description:

• Brief Research Report
• Community Case Study
• Conceptual Analysis
• Data Report
• Editorial
• FAIR² Data
• FAIR² DATA Direct Submission
• General Commentary
• Hypothesis and Theory
• ... View all formats

Articles that are accepted for publication by our external editors following rigorous peer review incur a publishing fee charged to Authors, institutions, or funders.

Article types

This Research Topic accepts the following article types, unless otherwise specified in the Research Topic description:

• Brief Research Report
• Community Case Study
• Conceptual Analysis
• Data Report
• Editorial
• FAIR² Data
• FAIR² DATA Direct Submission
• General Commentary
• Hypothesis and Theory
• Methods
• Mini Review
• Opinion
• Original Research
• Perspective
• Policy and Practice Reviews
• Policy Brief
• Review
• Systematic Review
• Technology and Code

Keywords: Drought Propagation, Physical Drivers, Anthropogenic Drivers, Propagation Thresholds, Drought Propagation Forecasting, Statistical Models, Physical Models

Important note: All contributions to this Research Topic must be within the scope of the section and journal to which they are submitted, as defined in their mission statements. Frontiers reserves the right to guide an out-of-scope manuscript to a more suitable section or journal at any stage of peer review.