Effects of Climate Change and Adaptive Options for Maize–Wheat Rotations in the North China Plain: A model-based evaluation

Lingchao MengZhicheng LiLei SuHaiwen RenSheng HanYunfei Zheng^*

• Tianjin Ren’ai College, Tianjin, China

Climate change poses a threat to the stability of crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). Across the SSP scenarios, the region is projected to warm substantially by the 2080s, with maximum and minimum temperatures rising by 2–6 °C and 0.4–3 °C, alongside increases of 0.3–0.8 MJ m-2 in radiation and 280–430 mm in precipitation. Using calibrated DSSAT-CERES models for maize and wheat, we assessed phenological shifts, yield responses, and adaptive strategies under future climate change scenarios (2050s and 2080s) based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The results revealed pronounced phenological changes, with summer maize anthesis and maturity advancing by up to 12 and 21 days, respectively, and winter wheat by up to 28 and 14 days. These shifts resulted in significant yield reductions, with maize declining by 17–82% and wheat by 26–36%. Maize proved more sensitive to warming than wheat. Adaptive measures partly offset yield losses. Optimized sowing dates improved maize yields by up to 90% and increased yields of summer maize-winter wheat rotations by 20–35%. Single cropping offered further benefits, with maize yields rising by 43–113% and wheat by 5–40% under most scenarios. Overall, the results highlight that while climate change will substantially reduce yields in the NCP, targeted management and cropping system adjustments can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and support regional food security.