ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Artif. Intell.
Sec. Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence
Volume 8 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/frai.2025.1566022
This article is part of the Research TopicDisinformation Countermeasures and Artificial IntelligenceView all 9 articles
Decoding Manipulative Narratives in Cognitive Warfare: A Case Study of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Provisionally accepted
- 1State University Kyiv Aviation Inistitute (former National Aviation University), Kyiv, Ukraine
- 2Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine
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This study investigates the construction and dissemination of manipulative narratives in the context of cognitive warfare during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Leveraging a mixed-methods approach that integrates AI-assisted semantic analysis with expert validation, we examine how adversarial messaging exploits cognitive biases-such as fear and confirmation bias-to influence perceptions and disrupt institutional trust. Using the proprietary Attack-Index tool and large language models (LLMs), we detect linguistic markers of manipulation, including euphemisms, sarcasm, and strategic framing. Our findings demonstrate that emotionally charged narratives, particularly those invoking nuclear threat scenarios, are synchronized with key geopolitical events to influence decision-makers and public opinion. The study identifies five thematic clusters and traces shifts in rhetorical strategies over time, showing how manipulative discourse adapts to geopolitical contexts. Special attention is given to the differentiated targeting of international political elites, Western publics, and Russian domestic audiences, each exhibiting varied cognitive vulnerabilities. We acknowledge methodological and ethical limitations, including the dual-use potential of AI tools and challenges in establishing causal inferences. Nonetheless, this study offers the following key contributions:1. Empirically establishing nuclear rhetoric as a strategic element of narrative manipulation, particularly around NATO summits and military aid announcements.Advancing an integrated analytical framework that combines semantic clustering and AI-based discourse detection to monitor information threats in real time.3. Providing actionable insights for policy and digital security, including the development of countermeasures and international collaboration in addressing cognitive warfare.
Keywords: Cognitive warfare, semantic analysis, Russia-Ukraine conflict, nuclear threat narratives, Emotional manipulation, disinformation
Received: 24 Jan 2025; Accepted: 18 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 PAZIUK, Lande, Shnurko-Tabakova and Kingston. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: ANDRII PAZIUK, State University Kyiv Aviation Inistitute (former National Aviation University), Kyiv, Ukraine
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