ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Artif. Intell.
Sec. Medicine and Public Health
Volume 8 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/frai.2025.1595101
This article is part of the Research TopicThe Applications of AI Techniques in Medical Data ProcessingView all 6 articles
Risk Predication of Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in Acute Ischemic Stroke with Atrial Fibrillation Using Machine Learning Models
Provisionally accepted- 1School of Public Health and Management, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
- 2Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
- 3Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong, China
- 4Department of Neurosurgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China., Jinan, Shandong Province, China
- 5Department of Neurosurgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
- 6Department of Neurosurgery, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China
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Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a serious complication of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), significantly affecting patient prognosis and increasing healthcare burden. AIS patients are often accompanied by basic diseases, and atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the common basic diseases. Despite the high prevalence of AF in AIS patients, few studies have specifically addressed SAP prediction in this comorbid population. We aimed to analyze the factors influencing the occurrence of SAP in patients with AIS and AF and to assess the risk of SAP development through an optimal predictive model. We performed a case-control study. This study included 4496 hospitalized patients with AIS and AF in China between January 2020 and September 2023. The primary outcome was SAP during hospitalization. Univariate analysis and LASSO regression analysis methods were used to screen predictors. The patients with AIS and AF were randomly divided into a training set, validation set, and test set. Then, we established Logistic Regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, Youden index and F1 score were adopted to evaluate the predictive value of each model. The optimal prediction model was visualized using a nomogram. In this study, SAP was identified in 10.16% of cases. The variables screened by univariate analysis and LASSO regression, Variables such as coronary artery disease, hypertension, and dysphagia, identified by univariate and LASSO regression analyses (P<0.05), were included in the LR, RF, SVM. The LR model outperformed other models, achieving an AUC of 0.866, accuracy of 90.13%, sensitivity of 79.49%, specificity of 86.11%, F1 score of 0.80. A nomogram based on the LR model was developed to predict SAP risk, providing a practical tool for early identification of high-risk patients, and enabling targeted interventions to reduce SAP incidence and improve outcomes.
Keywords: Acute ischemic stroke, Atrial Fibrillation, Stroke-associated pneumonia, Machine learning model, nomogram
Received: 17 Mar 2025; Accepted: 30 Apr 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Su, Zhang, Zhang, Liu, Xie, Li, Ma and Xin. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Xiaomei Li, School of Public Health and Management, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
Jixiang Ma, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong, 16992, China
Tao Xin, Department of Neurosurgery, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China
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