ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cardiovasc. Med.
Sec. Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2025.1462705
A global prediction of cardiovascular disease from 2020 to 2030
Provisionally accepted
- 1Ningbo Institute of Life and Health Industry, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo, China
- 2Third People's Hospital of Xiangcheng District in Suzhou, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Background: The study aimed to forecast the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) across all age groups worldwide from 2020 to 2030.Methods: Data spanning from 1990 to 2019 across diverse global populations were extracted from the GBD 2019 study data. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were utilized to predict the disease burden for the period between 2020 and 2030. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to measure the temporal trends.Results: The EAPC for age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) is projected to be 0.11 from 2020 to 2030, while for age-standardized death rate (ASDR) it is expected to be -1.11, and for age-standardized DALY rate it is estimated to be -1.04. By 2030, males are predicted to experience a higher burden compared to females, with higher ASIR (5092.65 vs. 3553.02) and ASDR (245.92 vs. 184.33), as well as a higher age-standardized DALY rate (734.72 vs. 653.71). Oceania is anticipated to have the highest age-standardized DALY rate at 9556.79. Central Asia stands out among the regions with the highest ASIR (437.48) and ASDR (1093.93). Lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions are projected to bear a greater burden of CVD by 2030, indicating an inverse relationship between SDI and CVD burden. Cabo Verde leads with the highest EAPC for DALYs and deaths at 4.08 (95% CI: 3.93, 4.23) and 4.82 (95% CI: 4.61, 5.04), respectively. The highest EAPC for incidence is observed in Slovenia at 1.80 (95% CI: 1.78, 1.83).Conclusion: From 2020 to 2030, the global CVD burden is projected to rise, with males and low SDI regions—particularly Oceania, Central Asia, and Cabo Verde—facing the highest risks. Strengthening primary prevention (e.g., addressing diet, physical inactivity, tobacco), implementing gender-specific interventions, and improving healthcare access in low-SDI areas are critical. Global collaboration and targeted investments can mitigate disparities and reduce preventable deaths, aligning with equitable health outcomes.
Keywords: prediction, cardiovascular disease, Incidence, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years
Received: 10 Jul 2024; Accepted: 16 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yang, Qinghua, Han and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Huina Liu, Ningbo Institute of Life and Health Industry, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.