ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cardiovasc. Med.
Sec. Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2025.1559432
Global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease attributed to non-optimal temperature, 1990-2021: An age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study
Provisionally accepted
- 1Southeast University, Nanjing, China
- 2Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China
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Background: In recent years, non-optimal temperature has significantly impacted global health including ischemic heart disease (IHD).Methods: Data regarding the burden of IHD caused by non-optimal temperature were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Temporal trends of the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) were estimated by annual percentage change (EAPC) from 1990 to 2021. Age-period-cohort modeling was employed to investigate IHD-related mortality.The number of IHD deaths and DALYs resulting from non-optimal temperature experienced a rise of 71.6% and 60.6%, respectively. And it showed regional imbalances: in the region with low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI), it was increased (EAPC for ASMR: 0.39% [95% CI: 0.2%, 0.58%], EAPC for ASDR: 0.33% [95% CI: 0.15%, 0.52%]), while decreased in the high SDI region, (EAPC for ASMR: -3.44% [95%CI: -3.58%, -3.3%], EAPC for ASDR: -3.18% [95%CI: -3.32%, -3.03%]). APC modeling showed that the global risk of death from IHD caused by non-optimal temperature was increased with age and was generally higher in males than in females. The period effect revealed a higher mortality risk in low-middle and low SDI regions, whereas the birth cohort effect indicated a lower mortality risk in high-middle and high SDI regions.The IHD burden caused by non-optimal temperature significantly varied according to the genders, SDI regions, and countries from 1990 to 2021. It is crucial to implement effective strategies to mitigate the impact of non-optimal temperature on IHD, particularly among men, the elderly, and the lower SDI regions.
Keywords: burden of disease, IHD, Non-optimal temperature, age-period-cohort model, Mortality
Received: 12 Jan 2025; Accepted: 15 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Xia, Suona, Yu, Zhi and Wang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Lina Wang, lnwang@seu.edu.cn
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