ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cardiovasc. Med.
Sec. Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2025.1643717
Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Burden in the Working Population Aged 15 to 59 Years in China
Provisionally accepted
- 1Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
- 2First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
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Objective: Based on GBD 2021 data, to analyze the disease burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in the Chinese population. Methods: The mortality rate, incidence rate, prevalence rate and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data of IHD in the Chinese population aged 15-59 from 1990 to 2021 were extracted and age-standardized. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend. the Age-Period-Cohort model (APC) decomposed age, period and cohort effects, and the Arima model predicted the disease burden. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -0.76 (95% CI: -0.94 to -0.57) and -0.71 (95% CI: -0.87 to -0.55), respectively. The age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) and incidence (ASIR) increased by 0.53 (95% CI: 0.49 to 0.57) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.64 to 0.91), respectively. The decline in ASMR and ASDR in women was greater than that in men, while the increase in ASPR and ASIR was more significant. The risks of death, DALYs and disease onset increase with age. The risk of onset first increased and then decreased. The risks of death and DALYs fluctuated and decreased over time. The risks of death and DALYs peaked from 2002 to 2006, and incidence risk peaked from 2007 to 2011.The risk of disease onset increased with the progress of the birth cohort, while the risks of death and DALYs decreased. The risk of death and DALYs peaked in the 1937 to 1941 birth cohort, and incidence risk peaked in the 2002 to 2006 birth cohort. In the next 15 years, ASIR, ASMR and ASDR of IHD in China will generally show a downward trend. The decline in ASMR and ASDR in women will be greater than that in men, but ASIR in women will increase and ASIR in men will decrease. Conclusion: There are gender differences in the IHD burden among the working population in China. Health education and early screening for middle-aged and elderly men should be strengthened, and lifestyle intervention should be carried out for middle-aged and young women.
Keywords: Ischemic Heart Disease, burden of disease, Trend of change, age-period-cohort model, Forecasting
Received: 11 Jun 2025; Accepted: 03 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Du, Zhang, Li and Gao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Lei Gao, hydgaolei@163.com
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