ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cardiovasc. Med.
Sec. Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Prevention
This article is part of the Research TopicCardiovascular Anthropometry For Large Scale Population Studies Volume IIView all 10 articles
Triglyceride-Glucose Index as a predictor of cardiovascular multimorbidity: a prospective cohort study
Provisionally accepted
- 1Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- 2Zhongshan Street Community Health Service Center, Shanghai, China
- 3Shanghai Songjiang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China
- 4Songjiang District Sijing Hospital, shanghai, China
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Background:The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a recognized marker of insulin resistance, yet its role in the dynamic progression from cardiovascular disease (CVD) to cardiovascular multimorbidity (CVM) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the association between the TyG index and transitions from a CVD-free state to first CVD and subsequently to CVM. Methods:In this prospective cohort study, we included participants from the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort who were free of CVD at baseline (2016). The TyG index was measured at baseline. Disease transitions were tracked over a median follow-up of 6.26 years. First CVD event was defined as the initial occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, or heart failure (HF), and CVM was defined as the presence of two or more of these conditions. Multi-state models were used to assess the association between the TyG index and transitions across health states, including disease-specific pathways. Results:During a median follow-up of 6.26 years,1182(3.79%)participants develo ped first CVD event, 671(2.15%)developed CVM. TyG index played crucial b ut different roles in all transitions from healthy to first CVD event,to CVM (HR=1.162,95%CI:1.074,1.257;HR=1.148,95%CI:1.010,1.305). When we further divided first CVD events into CHD, Stroke, and HF, we found that TyG in dex played different roles in disease-specific transitions even within the same transition stage(HR=1.145,95%CI:1.029,1.273;HR=1.228,95%CI:1.085,1.391;H R=1.213,95%CI:1.057,1.391). Conclusions:The TyG index is an independent predictor of dynamic progression toward cardiovascular multimorbidity, showing significant associations with atherosclerosis-driven conditions such as CHD and stroke but not with heart failure. These findings support its potential utility in risk stratification and preventive strategies across the cardiovascular disease continuum.
Keywords: triglyceride-glucoseindex, cardiovascularmultimorbidity, multimorbidity, Prosepective cohort study, cohort study
Received: 15 Jun 2025; Accepted: 27 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Bao, Chen, Zhu, Tang, Wu, Jia and Jiang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yonggen Jiang, 22261020001@m.fudan.edu.cn
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