ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate and Decision Making
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1386632
This article is part of the Research TopicClimate Strategies and Deep UncertaintyView all 12 articles
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Bighorn Sheep Potential Distribution in Mexico
Provisionally accepted
- 1Institute of Economic Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Ciudad de México, Mexico City, Mexico
- 2Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM), Monterrey, Mexico
- 3Valley of the Candles, Baja California sur, Mexico
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Climate change is expected to significantly reshape the geographic distribution of many species worldwide. The bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), a species of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in Mexico, is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shifts. This study applies ecological niche modeling to estimate the probability of species occurrence based on bioclimatic variables under future climate scenarios. Using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and six General Circulation Models, projections are made for the period 2041–2060. This analysis is based on 280 georeferenced records of bighorn sheep occurrences and evaluates changes in temperature and precipitation, which are assumed to influence their potential distribution. Projections suggest a significant reduction in geographic distribution, with drier periods and extreme temperatures exerting the most detrimental effects. These findings pose considerable challenges for long-term conservation and management of bighorn sheep populations, as current strategies may be insufficient. The ecological niche model suggests focusing conservation efforts on Northern Baja California (Californian ecoregion) to identify potential distribution. This research emphasizes the critical need to integrate climate projections into conservation strategies to better manage the uncertainties of climate change.
Keywords: Ecological Niche Modeling, Climate Change, Wildlife management, Bighorn sheep, Conservation Planning
Received: 15 Feb 2024; Accepted: 28 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zamora-Maldonado, Avila-Foucat and Sánchez-Sotomayor. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Hilda Consuelo Zamora-Maldonado, Institute of Economic Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Ciudad de México, 04510, Mexico City, Mexico
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