ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate and Economics
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1573803
Climate Change, Socioeconomic, Environmental, and Political Drivers of Road Traffic Fatalities in Somalia: A Multivariate Time Series Analysis
Provisionally accepted
Ahmed Awale Ahmed*
Abdikadir Abdi AliAbdisalan Sh Yousuf Duale
Abdirashid Mohamed
Abdisalam Hassan Muse- Amoud University, Borama, Somalia
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This study investigates the complex drivers of road traffic fatalities (RTFs) in Somalia, a low-resource setting facing significant socioeconomic, environmental, and political challenges. Utilizing a multivariate time series analysis with data from 1984 to 2021 and employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we examine the impact of climate change (temperature, rainfall), environmental degradation (CO2 emissions), socioeconomic conditions (urban population, foreign aid), and political instability on RTFs. The results reveal significant long-run relationships: increased urbanization, CO2 emissions, and political instability are associated with higher RTFs, while increased rainfall and foreign aid are associated with lower RTFs. Shortrun dynamics reveal nuanced effects, representing immediate, potentially transitory responses that can differ from the long-run equilibrium adjustments, with temperature and rainfall exhibiting positive associations with RTFs. Diagnostic tests confirm the robustness of the model. These findings challenge simplistic explanations of RTF drivers, highlighting the need for integrated road safety strategies that address climate change adaptation, environmental protection, socioeconomic development, and good governance. The study contributes to the limited literature on RTFs in fragile states and provides valuable insights for evidencebased policymaking aimed at achieving Sustainable Development Goals related to health, infrastructure, and sustainable communities.
Keywords: Climate Change, socioeconomic, environmental, Road traffic accidents, Low resource setting, ARDL, Foreign aid received, Somalia
Received: 09 Feb 2025; Accepted: 19 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Ahmed, Ali, Yousuf Duale, Mohamed and Muse. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ahmed Awale Ahmed, Amoud University, Borama, Somalia
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