ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate Adaptation
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1674565
The Adaptation Triangle: A Multivariate Analysis of Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihood Strategies in Semi-Arid Regions of India
Provisionally accepted
Bharath Kumar Mannepalli1*
Saket Kushwaha1
Virendra Kamalvanshi1Pradeep Parida2Evans Kemboi1Ankit Yadav1Prakhar Deep1Reshmi Mukherjee1- 1Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
- 2Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India
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India's semi-arid regions covering 37% of its geographical area were among the most climate-vulnerable ecosystems globally characterized by erratic rainfall, intense heat and fragile livelihoods. Despite extensive research, few studies have comprehensively investigated household vulnerability, resilience and their interplay in these dry regions. This study formulates the "adaptation triangle" framework to examine the interlinkages among livelihood strategies, vulnerability and resilience. Employing a multistage stratified random sampling methodology, primary data was collected from 375 households in Rajasthan, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, encompassing 69 socioeconomic, environmental and institutional factors. Composite indices for household livelihood vulnerability (HLVI) and resilience (HRI) were constructed in accordance with IPCC and FAO guidelines. Multivariate linear regression was employed to investigate the influence of 13 livelihood strategies on HLVI and HRI, while multinomial logistic regression evaluated their effect on household transitions within the vulnerability-resilience matrix's four quadrants. National-level data indicates moderate vulnerability (HLVI = 0.517) and low resilience (HRI = 0.489) with 37.07% of households categorized in the most at-risk high vulnerability-low resilience (HVLR) quadrant. Key adaptive strategies such as income diversification, rainwater harvesting, adjusting sowing dates and adoption of crop and livestock insurance were found to substantially reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. Households dependent on casual labour face heightened climate risk was also found to be significant. This study reinforces that livelihood choices are not only survival responses but pivotal levers in shaping climate adaptation outcomes. Policy recommendations include promoting diversified and climate-resilient livelihoods, expanding social safety nets, scaling up insurance access, microfinances and investing in water harvesting and agro-ecological infrastructure. The adaptation triangle framework provides a valuable lens to inform targeted interventions and build long-term resilience among vulnerable populations in India's semi-arid regions.
Keywords: Climate Change, Vulnerability, resilience, adaptation, Livelihood strategies, Semi-arid agriculture
Received: 28 Jul 2025; Accepted: 26 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Mannepalli, Kushwaha, Kamalvanshi, Parida, Kemboi, Yadav, Deep and Mukherjee. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Bharath Kumar Mannepalli, bharath.m@bhu.ac.in
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