ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Clim.
Sec. Predictions and Projections
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1691944
Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data
Provisionally accepted
Houraa Daher*
Ben P Kirtman- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, United States
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Due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, the Mediterranean has been labeled a "climate change hot spot." Previous studies have shown that climate change has dire consequences on socioeconomic situations in the Mediterranean region. Ten high-resolution global coupled climate models and two climate emissions scenarios are analyzed from the Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping reordering dataset, which is downscaled CMIP6 data. Daily precipitation and air-temperature data from both the wet and dry season is used to calculate droughts and heatwaves in the Mediterranean region, including the Middle East and North Africa countries. As expected, larger impacts are observed in the high emissions scenario and during the dry season for both droughts and heatwaves. Comparing the wet season to the dry season droughts, there is a northward shift in the positive signal as most of the values are seen over the Mediterranean Sea in the wet season and over the northern Mediterranean and Europe in the dry season. For the heatwaves, the dry season shows a response stronger than the one observed by the wet season by nearly two times, and there is a strong signal located over the Mediterranean Sea during the dry season that is not seen during the wet season.
Keywords: Droughts, Heatwaves, CMIP6, Mediterranean, climate
Received: 24 Aug 2025; Accepted: 20 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Daher and Kirtman. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Houraa Daher, hdaher@earth.miami.edu
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