ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Dent. Med.
Sec. Periodontics
Volume 6 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fdmed.2025.1643049
Epidemiological trends and incidence prediction of periodontal disease based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
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Objective This study aims to assess the burden and long-term trends of periodontal disease at the global level, and to predict future trends.Methods Age-standardized YLD rates (ASYRs) of periodontal disease were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated. The time trend of ASYRs caused by periodontal disease was quantified. ARIMA and ES models were used to predict the future trend of periodontal disease. the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1828.73 / 100,000. The agestandardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1841.50 / 100,000.ASYRs caused by global periodontal disease have decreased slightly, but they will continue to cause huge losses to healthy life in the future due to population aging and longer life expectancy. It is suggested that the prevention and treatment of periodontal disease should be carried out effectively in combination with the distribution characteristics and causes of periodontal disease in the world.
Keywords: Periodontal disease, disabled life years, long-term trend, Global disease burden, ARIMA prediction model
Received: 09 Jun 2025; Accepted: 28 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Ma, Shi and Geng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yudong Geng, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
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