ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Marine Affairs and Policy
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1647599
Research on the Volatility Spillover Effects of Geopolitical Conflict Risks on International Shipping and Crude Oil Markets
Provisionally accepted
- 1School of Logistics Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China
- 2Shanghai Maritime University School of Economics and Management, Shanghai, China
- 3Shanghai Maritime University School of Information Engineering, Shanghai, China
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The international shipping market, as a vital pillar of global trade, is closely intertwined with the crude oil market. Geopolitical conflicts—through mechanisms such as supply disruptions, rising transportation costs, and heightened market uncertainty—intensify volatility in both markets and amplify their mutual spillover effects. Using data from November 1999 to August 2025 across three markets, this study applies the Diebold–Yilmaz (DY) spillover index and the DCC-GARCH model to analyze the dynamic linkages between the shipping and crude oil markets, with a particular focus on volatility spillovers among the three. The results show significant bidirectional volatility spillovers between international shipping and crude oil markets, with the strongest spillovers occurring within the shipping market itself, reflecting its high degree of internal interconnectedness. Geopolitical conflict risk acts mainly as a net receiver of volatility and, by triggering supply–demand imbalances, prompting behavioral adjustments, and generating lagged policy effects, further amplifies spillovers between shipping and oil markets. This study not only provides a new perspective for understanding the interdependence of global energy and shipping markets under geopolitical uncertainty, but also offers valuable decision-making implications for policymakers and market participants in managing risks.
Keywords: Geopolitical conflict risks, Shipping market, Crude oil prices, Volatility spillover effects, DY spillover index model, DCC-GARCH model
Received: 16 Jun 2025; Accepted: 25 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Chi, Zheng, Chen and Xiao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Guangnian Xiao, gnxiao@shmtu.edu.cn
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