ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Mar. Sci.
Sec. Marine Fisheries, Aquaculture and Living Resources
This article is part of the Research TopicThe Biology of Pelagic Fishes in an Era of Climate ChangeView all articles
A hydrodynamic and particle-tracking model reveals ENSO-driven dispersal patterns of round scad ichthyoplankton in the Sulu Sea, Philippines
Provisionally accepted
- 1Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanology, College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of the Philippines Visayas, Miagao, Philippines
- 2University of the Philippines Diliman Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, Philippines
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Ichthyoplankton dispersal influences recruitment and sustainability of economically important fish populations. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing has driven recruitment overfishing in the municipal waters of the Sulu Sea. To support stock replenishment, this study developed a high-resolution hydrodynamic model (Delft3D-FLOW) quantitatively validated in Panay Strait and idealized, passive particle-tracking setup (Delft3D-PART) to simulate round scad dispersal under varying El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation phases: 2010-11 La Ni˜na, 2013-14 neutral, and 2015-16 El Ni˜no. Palawan and the closed season area retained most of the particles across all ENSO phases. During La Ni˜na, the Mindoro and Panay straits functioned as dispersal corridors and transported particles toward Panay. Under neutral conditions, Cuyo was a source and self-seeding zone. El Ni˜no weakened the East Asian Winter Monsoon, leading to surface current reversal and increased particle losses, which may reduce stock replenishment potential. Marine protected areas inside municipal waters are identified as candidate sites that could complement the closed season area by safeguarding key sink and source zones. Because larval behaviour and mortality were not included, simulated dispersal patterns represent physically plausible but conservative estimates of connectivity. Accordingly, management implications are intended as science-based preliminary guidance to support conservation and fisheries planning in data-limited regions.
Keywords: Delft3D, Dispersal, ichthyoplankton, Municipal waters, Round scads
Received: 15 Aug 2025; Accepted: 12 Feb 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Sudaria and Repollo. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Charina Lyn Amedo Repollo
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