ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Neurol.
Sec. Dementia and Neurodegenerative Diseases
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1522340
Predictive regression models for cognitive impairment, dementia, and Alzheimer´s disease using real-world electronic health records
Provisionally accepted
Raquel Yubero1
Rocio García-Cobos1
Elena Garcia Arcelay2*
Alicia Algaba3
Pablo Rebollo3
Jorge Maurino2
Rafael Arroyo1- 1Hospital Universitario Quirónsalud Madrid, Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- 2Roche (Spain), Madrid, Spain
- 3IQVIA (Spain), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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The aim of this non-interventional, case-control pilot study was to identify factors associated with cognitive impairment, dementia, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) using a real-world dataset from Quirónsaludmadrid´s database. Based on Global Deterioration Scale score, 4 models of regression aimed to predict cognitive impairment and dementia (model 1), mild cognitive impairment (MCI, model 2), AD (model 3) and progression (model 4) were created.Age (odds ratio [OR]=1.721), apathy (OR=34.952), anxiety (OR=0.223) and higher education (OR=0.026) were associated with model 1 with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.796 and a sensitivity of 0.60 and specificity of 0.86. For model 2, the selected variables were: age (OR=1.222), apathy (OR=2.650), depression (OR=0.318) and higher education (OR=0.232) with an AUC of 0.657 and a sensitivity of 0.82 and specificity of 0.45. For model 3, variables included were age (OR=1.490), first-degree family history (OR=4.147), apathy (OR=8.247), anxiety (OR=0.302), and higher education (OR=0.119) with an AUC of 0.852 and a sensitivity of 0.84 and specificity of 0.73. Model 4 had an AUC of 0.532 and a sensitivity of 0.59 and specificity of 0.65.In conclusion, age and apathy were risk factors for the development of cognitive impairment, MCI and AD, while high education level was a protective factor in the three main models. Family history of dementia was a risk factor for developing AD. Models 3 and 1 had the best selection capacity and could be recommended to predict the diagnosis of AD and cognitive impairment and dementia in individuals with suspicious symptoms or presymptomatic.
Keywords: Alzheime´s Disease, Dementia, Risk factors, cognitive impairment, Regression model
Received: 04 Nov 2024; Accepted: 25 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yubero, García-Cobos, Garcia Arcelay, Algaba, Rebollo, Maurino and Arroyo. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Elena Garcia Arcelay, Roche (Spain), Madrid, Spain
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