ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Neurol.
Sec. Epilepsy
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1526984
Global, regional, and national epilepsy of unknown cause incidence and mortality, 1990-2036: cross-national health inequalities and predictive analytics
Provisionally accepted
- 1Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- 2Tianjin Fourth Central Hospital, Tianjin, Hebei, China
- 3Tianjin University, Tianjin, Tianjin, China
- 4Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, SAR China
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The responsibility for the disease burden associated with epilepsy of unknown cause is unevenly distributed across different nations. It is crucial to describe and forecast cross-national health disparities in terms of years lived with disability (YLDs) for the forthcoming 15-year period. We examined and projected trends in the burden of disease and cross-national inequalities in epilepsy of unknown cause globally, by region and country from 1990 to 2036.Our dataset, sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, details the number of deaths, morbidity instances, and YLDs due to epilepsy of unknown cause. The distribution of YLDs across varying levels of sociodemographic indices (SDI) was quantified using the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative concentration index (RCI). Additionally, autoregressive integrated moving average models were utilized to predict future trends in SII and RCI. We used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict global, national, and regional trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASDR), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), and age-standardized young-onset rates (ASYR) for epilepsy of unknown cause over the next 15 years.We excluded countries or regions with a total number of age-group cases <5 (42 cases in total) because of potential problems with the sparsity of age-group data in countries with very small populations, resulting in the non-convergence of the BAPC model.In 2021, epilepsy of unknown cause was responsible for 0.14 million deaths worldwide, with 3.27 million morbidity cases and 7.27 million YLDs recorded. Correlation analysis revealed a
Keywords: GBD (Global Burden Disease), epliepsy, epilepsy of unknown cause, YLD, years lived with a disability, Health Inequalities Analysis, predictive analytics, BAPC prediction model
Received: 12 Nov 2024; Accepted: 06 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wang, Wang, Qiu, Wang and Yu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Lijun Wang, Tianjin Fourth Central Hospital, Tianjin, Hebei, China
Zhenjie Yu, Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, SAR China
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