ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Neurol.
Sec. Endovascular and Interventional Neurology
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1574278
Development of a model for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with ischemic stroke after dual antiplatelet therapy
Provisionally accepted
- 1Ganzhou People's Hospital, Ganzhou, China
- 2First People's Hospital of Wenling, Wenling, China
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Objective: To establish a model for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with ischemic stroke after dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT).: A model for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with ischemic stroke after DAPT was established based on a retrospective study that involved 1217 patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke in the Neurology Department of Nanchang University Affiliated Ganzhou Hospital from January 2019 to June 2021. A receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed to evaluate the model's power. Data from patients with ischemic stroke between July and December 2021 were used to validate the power of the model. Results: A total of 1217 patients with ischemic stroke between January 2019 and June 2021 were included in the model. The cohort comprised 1164 patients in the non-gastrointestinal bleeding group and 53 in the gastrointestinal bleeding group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age, fibrinogen level, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score were independent risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding. A model for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with ischemic stroke after DAPT was established, Logit(P) = -7.269 + 0.074 X1 + 0.071 X2 + 0.361 X3 + 0.082 X4 (X1, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score; X2, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; X3, fibrinogen; X4, activated partial thromboplastin time).Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the area under the curve for the model was 0.733. Data from the validation group showed that the area under the curve for the model was 0.665.A model for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with ischemic stroke after DAPT was established and demonstrated its predictive ability. Although the predictive ability of the model was not perfect, this was an important attempt. Further studies are needed to establish better models to predict gastrointestinal bleeding.
Keywords: ischemic stroke, Dual antiplatelet therapy, gastrointestinal bleeding, risk factor, Model
Received: 10 Feb 2025; Accepted: 01 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Huang, Fan, Zhu, Zhou and Yi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jiaming Huang, Ganzhou People's Hospital, Ganzhou, China
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