ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Neurol.
Sec. Neuroepidemiology
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1631775
Comparative analysis of different stroke subtype burden and future trends over 15 years in China and globally from 1990 to 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1School of Rehabilitation Medicine, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- 2Beijing Boai Hospital, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- 3Beijing Stomatological Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, China, Beijing, China
- 4Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China
- 5School of Rehabilitation , Capital Medical University, Beijing, China, Beijing, China
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This study aimed to characterize the temporal trends in the burden of various stroke subtypes, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), across different age and sex groups in China from 1990 to 2021 and compare these trends with global data.This study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 public dataset to examine temporal trends in different stroke subtypes over the past three decades, both globally and in China. Joinpoint regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to analyze historical patterns and forecast future trajectories.The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) exhibited similar trends, with ischemic stroke (IS) showing an increase, while intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) displayed a decline. The ASIR of IS in China increased from 100.049 to 135.789 per 100,000. In contrast, the ASIR for ICH decreased from 108.931 to 61.153 per 100,000, and the ASIR for SAH declined from 17.957 to 7.811 per 100,000. In terms of mortality and DLAYs, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized DALYs (ASDR) for IS, ICH, and SAH all declined.Globally, stroke burden decreased for all subtypes, with men generally more affected than women. The highest burden remains in older populations. Projections suggest a continued rise in IS and ICH prevalence, but a stable trend for SAH.In China, although the burden of most stroke subtypes has declined, IS and ICH still require sustained prevention and management efforts, particularly in light of their rising prevalence among men and the elderly.
Keywords: Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), Stroke
Received: 29 May 2025; Accepted: 03 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Wu, Jin, Duan and Du. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Xiaoxia Du, School of Rehabilitation Medicine, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100068, China
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