ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Neurol.
Sec. Headache and Neurogenic Pain
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1641599
Global trends and future projections of migraine burden in children aged 5 to 14 from 1990 to 2050
Provisionally accepted
Shuzhen Liao
Haishou Fu*- Fuzhou University Affiliated Provincial Hospital, School of Medicine, Fuzhou University, Shengli Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
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Migraine is a leading cause of disability, yet its burden in children aged 5 to 14 remains underexplored. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed global, regional, and national migraine burdens from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence (ASPR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were assessed, with estimated annual percent change (EAPC) used for trend evaluation. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model projected incidence to 2050. Globally, migraine cases rose by 39.5% (21.95 to 26.87 million), though ASIR, ASPR, and DALY rates remained stable. Low-middle Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions had the highest prevalence (31.19 million) and DALY (1.11 million), while high SDI regions recorded the highest female incidence rates. Western Sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest increases across all metrics (EAPCs > 3.0). Brazil reported high ASIR and DALY, while Thailand had the greatest DALY reduction, likely due to effective public health measures. Projections suggest declining ASIR, ASPR, and DALY rates by 2050. These findings indicated absolute cases of migraine have increased due to population growth, the age-standardized burden has remained stable over time. Strengthened surveillance, targeted screening in low-middle SDI regions, and school-based awareness programs in high-burden countries are essential to mitigating migraine-related disability in this vulnerable population.
Keywords: Migraine, Global burden of disease, Incidence, Bayesian age-period-cohort model, Headache
Received: 11 Jul 2025; Accepted: 18 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Liao and Fu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Haishou Fu, Fuzhou University Affiliated Provincial Hospital, School of Medicine, Fuzhou University, Shengli Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
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