ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Neurol.
Sec. Headache and Neurogenic Pain
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1674946
This article is part of the Research TopicData Driven Analytics in Orofacial PainView all articles
Global, regional, and national burden of headache disorders, 1990–2021, and projections to 2050: a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
- 2Fujian Provincial Cancer Hospital Clinical Oncology School, Fuzhou, China
- 3Fujian Provincial Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou, China
- 4900th Hospital of the People's Liberation Army Joint Logistic Support Force, Fuzhou, China
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Introduction: Headache disorders, including migraines and tension-type headaches, are prevalent and debilitating conditions that affect millions of people worldwide. And this analysis aims to inform evidence-based interventions and policies for alleviating the burden of headache disorders on individuals and societies. Methods: We analyzed headache data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years across 204 countries and territories over 32 years. The data were stratified according to age, sex, year, geographical region, and socio-demographic Index (SDI). We employed the estimated average percentage change calculation to assess the temporal trends of these indicators. A detailed analysis of health inequities was conducted using decomposition analysis, the pyramid model, slope index, and concentration index. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to forecast the disease burden over the next 26 years. Results: By 2021, the global incidence of headache disorders was estimated to be 809.2 million, with tension-type headaches being the most prevalent. Age-standardized incidence rates, prevalence rates, and DALYs have exhibited an overall upward trend since 1990. The health inequality analysis revealed a diminishing disparity in the burden of headache disorders across countries with varying SDI scores. Predictions indicate a continuous increase in headache disorders, potentially reaching over 3.5 billion by 2050 based on current trends. Conclusion: The burden of headache disorders is increasing, with important implications for global health and the economy. The rising predictions highlight the potential need for targeted public health strategies and interventions.
Keywords: Headache Disorders, Migraines, Tension-type headaches, Global burden, trend andprediction, health inequalities
Received: 28 Jul 2025; Accepted: 15 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Shen, Li, Wang, Guo and Ye. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jianxin Ye, 13959199189@139.com
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