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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Surg.

Sec. Orthopedic Surgery

Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fsurg.2025.1597101

A Clinical Risk Prediction Model for Perioperative Lower Extremity DVT in Patients Undergoing Spinal Fracture Surgery

Provisionally accepted
Shuyuan  ZhuangShuyuan Zhuang1YuanTong  ZangYuanTong Zang2Peng  DuPeng Du2SiHong  DongSiHong Dong1Jiao  WuJiao Wu1DeLong  LiDeLong Li1Li  LiLi Li2*
  • 1Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, China
  • 2The Second Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

Objective: To develop a perioperative lower-extremity deep vein thrombosis (D VT) risk prediction model for spinal fracture surgery patients using logistic reg ression, supporting clinical prevention strategies.Methods: Clinical data from 24 9 patients undergoing spinal fracture surgery (July 2019–October 2024) were re trospectively analyzed. Participants were divided into a model group (n=166) a nd a validation group (n=83) in a 2:1 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression identified independent risk factors for perioperative DVT, and a pre dictive model was established. Model fit was evaluated using the Hosmer-Leme show test, and predictive performance was assessed via receiver operating chara cteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: Independent risk factors included periop erative blood transfusion, elevated C-reactive protein, D-dimer >500 μg/L, hype rtension, age ≥60 years, and prolonged bed rest. The model (P=1/[1+e^−Z]) de monstrated a good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ²=12.139, P=0.807). ROC analysis s howed AUC values of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.80–0.92) for the model group and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64–0.98) for the validation group, indicating robust predictive perf ormance. Conclusion: The identified risk factors are critical predictors of periop erative DVT in spinal fracture patients. The proposed model exhibits strong cli nical utility for early risk stratification and intervention guidance.

Keywords: spinal fracture1, deep vein thrombosis2, risk factors3, predictivemode4, lower limb5

Received: 20 Mar 2025; Accepted: 13 Aug 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Zhuang, Zang, Du, Dong, Wu, Li and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Li Li, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

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