ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Surg.
Sec. Colorectal and Proctological Surgery
A Retrospective Study on Influencing Factors of Postoperative Hospital Stay and Development of a Predictive Scoring Model for Elderly Patients (≥70 Years) with Colorectal Cancer Undergoing Laparoscopic Radical Resection
Provisionally accepted
- 1Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- 2Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital, Chengdu, China
- 3The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
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The global aging of the population is accelerating, and the proportion of elderly patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) undergoing laparoscopic radical surgery is increasing year by year. However, there is a significant individual variation in postoperative hospital stay, and there is a lack of convenient prediction tools. This study aims to develop and validate a simplified scoring model for postoperative hospital stay in this group of patients. Retrospectively included 205 elderly CRC patients (aged ≥ 70 years) who underwent laparoscopic radical surgery in our hospital from August 2024 to September 2025. Baseline characteristics (age, gender, etc.), tumor indicators, surgical parameters, blood tests, ASA classification, and postoperative outcomes were collected. The main outcome was the non-medical factor-delayed hospital stay. Through univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis, the model efficacy was verified using R² and RMSE. The results showed that the average postoperative hospital stay was 16.6 ± 5.0 days (9 - 42 days), and postoperative 30-day complications were an independent risk factor for prolonged hospital stay (β = 7.689, P < 0.001). Finally, a scoring model (0 - 5 points) was constructed: postoperative complications (yes = 3 points), ≥ 2 comorbidities (yes = 1 point), and surgery time > 180 minutes (yes = 1 point). Risk stratification: low-risk (0 points, 15% of patients) expected hospital stay 14.8 ± 3.2 days, moderate-risk (1 - 2 points, 60%) 16.0 ± 4.0 days, high-risk (3 - 5 points, 25%) 22.5 ± 6.8 days. Conclusion: This simplified model can effectively predict the postoperative hospital stay of elderly CRC patients and provide a practical tool for clinical risk stratification, early intervention, and resource optimization.
Keywords: Elderly colorectal cancer, Laparoscopic radical resection, postoperative hospital stay, predictive model, Cox regression analysis
Received: 20 Sep 2025; Accepted: 17 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhou, He, Zhao and Zhao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Zhengfei Zhao, 78992373@qq.com
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