ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cardiovasc. Med.
Sec. Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Prevention
The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Non-Rheumatic Degenerative Mitral Valve Disease from 1990 to 2021 and Forecast for 2050
Provisionally accepted
- 1The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China
- 2Soochow University Medical College, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China
- 3Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China
- 4National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Mentougou, Beijing, China
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Abstract Background Given the changing epidemiological and burden trends of non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD), it is crucial to re-examine geographical differences and trends. Here, we describe the current trends of DMVD epidemiology using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts extending to 2050. Methods Annual case numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for DMVD between 1990 and 2021, as well as their estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC), were derived from the 2021 GBD study. Exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models are employed for forecasting the future trends of DMVD. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the number of DMVD incidence cases increased from 566,261 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 523,330–609,607) to 1,162,558 (1,084,358–1,244,874), corresponding to a 105.3% (77.9–137.9) rise. Additionally, DMVD-related death cases rose by 53.8% (21.2–97.7), from 23,954 (21,032–26,296) to 36,844 (31,883–41,572). However, there is a decline in ASR of incidence and death. Stratified analysis revealed that the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in males is nearly twice that of females, while the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) is higher in females. These trends are not expected to improve significantly by 2050. Concurrently, the ASIR peaks in individuals aged 65-69 and 70-74. In 2021, higher socio-demographic index (SDI) countries bore a greater DMVD burden, while lower-SDI countries faced greater cross-country inequalities. Conclusions The number of DMVD epidemiological indicators is rising annually. Higher-SDI countries need to adjust healthcare policies to address aging populations and support lower-SDI countries with medical resources and cardiology expertise. This study suggests that age 65 is a meaningful threshold for screening. Additionally, Our findings advocate for stratified public health interventions: incidence-based screening targeting males and mortality-focused treatment intensification for females.
Keywords: Disability-adjusted life years, Estimated annual percentage changes, GBD (Global Burden Disease), Non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease, SDI :sociodemographic index
Received: 04 Mar 2025; Accepted: 02 Jan 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Si, Hou, Wang, Huo and Sun. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Guijun Huo
Cheng Sun
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