ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cardiovasc. Med.
Sec. Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Prevention
Global Burden of Disease Attributable to High Fasting Plasma Glucose from 1990 to 2021: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2021
Provisionally accepted
Nan Wang
Ying Yu WangQian Qian LvXia Zhao ZhangJuan Wen YangJie WangJie ZhangNuerbiya AsihaerYa ShiLu ZhangYi Jing GaoYing Xing*- Xi’an Daxing Hospital, Xi’an, China
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Objective: This study comprehensively assessed the disease burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) from 1990 to 2021 and projected its future trends over the next 30 years. Research Design and Methods: The analysis was based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, including mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR). The DisMod-MR 2.1 model was used to estimate the disease burden attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2021. In addition, an age-period-cohort model was applied to project the disease burden for 2051. Results: Diabetes mellitus (DM) remained the leading cause of HFPG-attributable burden, with an ASDR of 916.14 (95% UI: 776.14-1096.55) and an ASMR of 19.61 (95% UI: 18.08-20.82) per 100,000 population. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke also contributed substantially to global mortality and morbidity. North Africa and the Middle East, along with Oceania, reported the highest regional burdens. China recorded the highest number of deaths (956,264.44) and DALYs (27,655,530.55). Males and individuals aged ≥75 years experienced disproportionately higher burdens. Projections indicated a global decline in ASMR but a continued increase in ASDR, with persistent sex disparities. Conclusions: DM, IHD, and stroke were the primary contributors to the HFPG-attributable disease burden. Although ASMR is projected to decline, the continued rise in ASDR underscores the need for strengthened prevention strategies and health system responses.
Keywords: Age-Standardized DALY Rates, age-standardized mortality rates, disease burden, Future trends, Globalburden of disease, High fasting plasma glucose
Received: 06 Aug 2025; Accepted: 20 Jan 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Wang, Wang, Lv, Zhang, Yang, Wang, Zhang, Asihaer, Shi, Zhang, Gao and Xing. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ying Xing
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