A Scoping Review of Literature on Climate Change Impacts Among Smallholder Maize Producers in Low-and Medium-Income Countries

Samson Gachathi^1,2*Daniel Muasya²

• ¹Anglican Church of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya
• ²St Paul's University, Limuru Town, Kenya

Climate change is redefining global agriculture through temperature swings, erratic rainfall, and frequent extreme events. The IPCC (2022) reports that agricultural productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa has declined by approximately 5-6% due to climate warming, with maize yields particularly affected by temperatures exceeding 30-35°C during critical growth stages. Smallholder farming communities face disproportionate vulnerability to intensifying climate hazards, yet knowledge regarding specific mechanisms through which climate variability affects smallholder maize producers—and evidence on adaptation strategy effectiveness—remains fragmented and methodologically limited. This is particularly concerning in sub-Saharan Africa, where over 70% of maize producers experience high exposure and sensitivity alongside low adaptive capacity. This scoping review assessed gaps in empirical research on climate change impacts and adaptation responses among smallholder maize producers in LMICs. Following PRISMA guidelines, a systematic search identified 86 peer-reviewed articles published between 2008 and 2025 and indexed in Scopus, Web of Science, and AGRICOLA. After removing duplicates using Zotero and excluding qualitative-only studies, grey literature, studies with undefined outcome variables, and those without inferential statistics, 38 empirical peer-reviewed articles employing quantitative or mixed method were analyzed using descriptive statistics in Microsoft Excel. The analysis revealed three main outcome variables: adaptation strategies (70.3%, n=26), perception (21.6%, n=8), and climate awareness (8.1%, n=3). Geographically, studies concentrated heavily in Ethiopia (19%), Ghana (19%), and Zimbabwe (14%), while South Africa, Lesotho, Nigeria, Tanzania, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, DRC, Eswatini, and Kenya each accounted for less than 10%, revealing clear research bias. Cross-sectional research design dominated (n=32, 86%), followed by exploratory design (n=4, 11%) and longitudinal design (n=1, 3%). Regarding theoretical frameworks, 28% of studies lacked any framework, 20% employed random utility maximization theory, and 52% drew on 13 other theories including adaptive capability, expected utility, protection motivation, socioecological system, and vulnerability theory—each accounting for 4%. Notably, no study incorporated moderation variables. The review reveals that while adaptation behaviors are well-documented, empirical evidence quantifying actual climate impacts on productivity, income, and awareness remains scarce. Future research should prioritize impact studies evaluating scalable interventions and utilize robust resilience metrics to strengthen smallholder maize systems.