Framing Agricultural Climate Risks for Policy Action: Insights from Impact Chain Assessments in Five European Regions

Jane Ihrfors^1*Bishwajit Roy²Tomás Calheiros²Ricardo Encarnação Coelho²Tiago Capela Lourenço²Amandine Valérie Pastor^3,4Robert Oakes⁵Kariuki Weru⁵Iván Ramos-Diez⁶Sara Barilari⁶Peter Gyuris⁷Attila Némethy⁷Alfredo Reder⁸Giusy Fedele⁸Sofie Hellsten⁹

• ¹Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), Stockholm, Sweden
• ²Universidade de Lisboa Centro de Ecologia Evolucao e Alteracoes Ambientais, Lisbon, Portugal
• ³ITAP, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France, Montpellier, France
• ⁴Elsa, Research Group for Environmental Lifecycle and Sustainability Assessment, Montpellier, France, Montpellier, France
• ⁵United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
• ⁶Fundacion CARTIF, Boecillo, Spain
• ⁷Geonardo Environmental Technologies, H-1031, Budapest, Hungary., Budapest, Hungary
• ⁸Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy
• ⁹IVL Svenska Miljoinstitutet AB, Stockholm, Sweden

Climate change presents regionally diverse risks to agriculture, with altered precipitation patterns and increased temperatures threatening crop yields and food security. To support more coherent and actionable adaptation strategies, this study applies and compares the impact chain methodology across five European case study regions: Gotland (Sweden), Tarn-et-Garonne (France), the Southern Great Plain (Hungary), Almería (Spain), and the Azores (Portugal). Drawing on stakeholder co-production and high-resolution climate projections, the study identifies key biophysical and institutional drivers of vulnerability. Across all regions, the results highlight a consistent shift toward wetter winters and drier summers, with significant implications for irrigation demand and crop water stress. Despite climatic differences, common impact pathways emerge: water scarcity affecting agricultural productivity, soil degradation leading to long-term yield loss, and institutional fragmentation delaying adaptation. The consolidated impact chain synthesizes these shared pathways and links them to regionally suitable land-use-based adaptation and mitigation solutions (LAMS). The findings show that while LAMS can address local biophysical vulnerabilities, their implementation depends critically on institutional capacity, governance coordination, and access to resources. Although similar risk patterns emerge across regions, the effective implementation of This is a provisional file, not the final typeset article adaptation measures must be tailored to local ecological, economic, and governance contexts to ensure feasibility, acceptance, and long-term impact. This study demonstrates how impact chains serve as an effective visual tool to mind map climate risks, engage with local stakeholders, and shape climate action interventions and policies. In this work, impact chains were co-created with case study stakeholders allowing for a shared and broad understanding of the different risk elements, their dynamics and how they can be addressed by adaptation solutions. By linking local assessments with broader policy frameworks, impact chains offer a scalable approach to support climate-resilient land use and agricultural planning under the European Green Deal and beyond.