- Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
Introduction: The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-induced extreme weather events, such as droughts, have significantly reduced agricultural productivity worldwide. Enhancing access to agro-meteorological services can mitigate these impacts by improving farmers’ decision-making and adaptive capacity. However, their economic value remains poorly understood, especially in African countries where meteorological services are provided as public goods. Demonstrating their value is critical to stimulate investment and strengthen climate-resilient agriculture.
Methods: This study reviews and synthesises empirical evidence on the economic value of agro-meteorological services through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of international studies. Both peer-reviewed and grey literature were analysed to assess valuation methods, estimated benefits, and knowledge gaps.
Results: The meta-analysis results indicate that agro-meteorological services generate an estimated annual economic value of US$0.59 billion annually, underscoring their vital role in enhancing agricultural productivity, risk management, and resilience to climate shocks. Access to reliable weather and climate information enables farmers to make informed decisions, optimise resource use, and reduce crop losses, thereby contributing to more sustainable and profitable agricultural systems.
Discussion: Despite their clear economic value, political, institutional, and socio-economic factors influencing investment decisions remain underexplored. The integration of political economy analysis is essential to understand how governance structures, marginalisation, and social inequalities shape access to and benefits from agro-meteorological services.
Recommendations: Governments and development partners should increase investment in advanced meteorological infrastructure, data and communication systems, treating these services as productive investments rather than costs. Researchers should integrate indigenous weather knowledge with modern forecasting to enhance trust and usability. The economic analyses should incorporate secondary benefits across sectors using tools such as input–output analysis and general equilibrium models to better capture the full societal value of agro-meteorological services. There is also a need to incorporate political economy perspectives in future studies to better capture how social and structural inequalities shape the economic value and equitable use of agro-meteorological services.
1 Introduction
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, have escalated in recent years, driven in part by climate change resulting from anthropogenic activities. This trend is further exacerbated by the unsustainable human exploitation of Earth’s resources, often carried out with little consideration for the needs of other species sharing the planet. These climatic disruptions disproportionately affect smallholder farmers in developing countries, particularly across Africa, who are among the most vulnerable to climate-induced risks (Bahta, 2022; Chiputwa et al., 2022; Radeny et al., 2019). This is due to heavy reliance on rainfed farming systems and limited capacity to cope with a changing climate (Bahta, 2022; Zinyengere et al., 2011). Indeed, climate change remains one of the key challenges catalysing the food insecurity crisis in Africa (Ayugi et al., 2022; Bedasa and Bedemo, 2022). Nevertheless, increased access and investments in agro-meteorological services can significantly help offset the adverse effects of climate change through the information provided to farmers to improve their production and marketing decisions and to ensure the uptake of optimal adaptation strategies (Bruno Soares, 2017; Hansen et al., 2019; Hewitt and Stone, 2021; Paparrizos et al., 2021; Takle et al., 2014; Tarchiani et al., 2018; Tesfaye et al., 2019; Vaughan, 2022).
Agro-meteorological services and products, encompassing weather forecasts, seasonal climate outlooks, and early warnings, are a key subset of weather and climate services that support agricultural decision-making, typically delivered through the National Meteorological Services (NMS) (Hansen et al., 2019; Hewitt and Stone, 2021; Tarchiani et al., 2018; Vaughan, 2022; WMO, 2021; WMO, 2022). Searching for weather information and products is a common risk management technique employed by African farmers (Anaman, 1988; Amegnaglo et al., 2017; Manzvera et al., 2024). While weather forecasts focus on short- to medium-term conditions and climate services address longer-term trends, the two overlap significantly, and terms such as weather forecasts, seasonal climate services, and climate information are often used interchangeably. Farmers rely on both: short-term forecasts guide daily operations like fertiliser application, while seasonal climate services inform strategic decisions such as crop selection and land preparation (Adams et al., 2003; Amegnaglo et al., 2017; Bert et al., 2006; Chiputwa et al., 2022; Paparrizos et al., 2021; Patt et al., 2005; Roudier et al., 2016; Takle et al., 2014; Tarchiani et al., 2018), underscoring their integrated role in agriculture. For this study, these terms are used synonymously, with the reviewed literature primarily focusing on seasonal weather forecasts.
Despite their potential, the economic value of agro-meteorological services remains poorly understood, particularly in Africa, where forecasts are often treated as public goods (Anaman et al., 2017; Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b; Chiputwa et al., 2022; Vaughan and Dessai, 2014). This lack of recognition limits investments in modern meteorological infrastructure and tailored service delivery (Dinku et al., 2022; Hewitt and Stone, 2021; WMO, 2015, 2021). Greater awareness of their benefits is essential to inform policy and increase funding towards the delivery of these services (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Freebairn and Zillman, 2002; Perrels et al., 2013; WMO, 2015). Concurrently, increased funding for agro-meteorological services further ensures these services are delivered in formats that are easily understood by end-users and translated into actionable decisions at the farm level (Hewitt and Stone, 2021; Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Zinyengere et al., 2011).
This study addresses this gap in understanding the economic value of agro-meteorological services through a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis. The central research question is: What is the economic value of agro-meteorological services? The meta-analysis quantifies benefits at both farmer and societal levels—considering increased agricultural production and improved food availability for consumers (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b; Bruno Soares, 2017), offering a more rigorous assessment than traditional narrative reviews, which typically provide qualitative summaries. Beyond quantification, the study’s novelty lies in examining research gaps through a political economy lens. Political economy analysis is critical because access to and perceived value of these services are shaped not only by technical quality but also by socioeconomic and institutional factors such as poverty, marginalisation, social exclusion, and infrastructure limitations. For example, smallholder farmers in remote areas often face barriers like poor telecommunications, low literacy, and limited financial resources, which hinder effective use of forecasts even when publicly available. Accounting for these dynamics provides a more complete understanding of the benefits of agro-meteorological services and informs policies and interventions that promote equity, ensure vulnerable groups benefit, and target investments where they are most needed to strengthen climate change adaptation.
The remainder of the paper has four major sections. The first section outlines the materials and methods employed. Secondly, the key findings from the review process are provided. Third, the discussion section is provided, highlighting common trends that emerged as well as areas which need further attention. The conclusion and recommendations, including suggestions made to expand investments in agro-meteorological services, are provided in the fourth section. The list of cited references is provided at the end of the paper.
2 Materials and methods
2.1 Data collection method
This study was based on an in-depth systematic literature review (SLR). The review of literature took stock of and synthesised existing evidence on the economic value of agro-meteorological services. The systematic review was guided by the RepOrting Standards for Systematic Evidence Synthesis (ROSES) framework (Haddaway et al., 2018). As such, the review was based on a well-defined procedure that outlined the main objective, rationale, and methods followed during the review. This framework provides a standard format for selecting and reviewing literature on a specific topic (Haddaway et al., 2018; Ogunyiola et al., 2022; Peñaloza et al., 2022). The review process consisted of five key steps, which are: setting of eligibility criteria, search strategy, screening and selection of research studies, article management, data extraction and then synthesis of findings. These five steps are applied extensively in a systematic review of literature in several socio-economic research studies (Haddaway et al., 2018; Ngwili et al., 2021).
2.2 Review procedure
2.2.1 Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Article selection for this review was guided by clearly defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. To ensure comprehensive coverage, the literature search was not restricted by publication year or geographic region, allowing assessment of both the evolution and global scope of research on the economic value of agro-meteorological services. Only articles published in English were included, reflecting the language proficiency of the researchers, and inclusion was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles to ensure methodological rigour and the quality of evidence.
Eligible studies explicitly examined the economic valuation of agro-meteorological services, such as weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts, or climate services in agriculture. These included studies quantifying economic benefits, net returns, productivity gains, cost–benefit outcomes, or welfare effects attributable to the use of weather or climate information by farmers or society. Both micro-level (farm or household) and macro-level (sectoral or societal) evaluations were considered.
Studies were excluded if they focused solely on technical forecast accuracy, climatological modelling, or meteorological system development without linking to economic outcomes. Similarly, articles addressing perceptions, awareness, or adoption of services without explicit economic valuation were excluded, as were studies on climate services in non-agricultural sectors. Non-peer-reviewed publications were also excluded to ensure consistency and reliability.
2.2.2 Search strategy
A structured search strategy was developed to identify relevant articles from online databases, with Scopus serving as the primary source and AGORA and Ageconsearch used to complement coverage. The use of multiple databases was intended to maximise access to all potentially eligible studies. These databases were selected due to their strong coverage of high-quality applied agricultural economics and social science literature. Boolean logic operators were employed to improve the precision and completeness of the search, with the connectors “AND” and “OR” used to narrow or broaden the search, respectively. The core search string applied was economic value AND (weather forecasts OR seasonal weather forecasts OR climate services OR agro-meteorological services). Additional variants were used to capture a wider range of relevant studies and facilitate filtering, including willingness to pay OR benefit–cost AND (weather forecasts OR seasonal weather forecasts OR climate services OR agro-meteorological services).
The literature search was not restricted by publication year to capture all potentially relevant studies. However, the review was limited to research articles published in English that focused explicitly on the economic valuation of agro-meteorological services, weather forecasts, or climate services in the agricultural sector. Only peer-reviewed journal articles were systematically reviewed. Additional studies were identified through backward citation tracking by examining reference lists of selected articles, a method known to enhance coverage of relevant literature (Reijnders et al., 2008; Roine et al., 2001; Salehi et al., 2021). Grey literature was also reviewed. The grey literature mainly included peer-reviewed reports and case studies on evaluating the economic benefits of climate services, and these were obtained through searches in online databases of United Nations (UN) organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP) and WMO, as well as the World Bank. The keyword searches used in these databases included weather forecast, early action, anticipatory action and early warning and early action. These keywords were searched in combination with study-related key terms, mainly economic benefits and economic value. The literature search was conducted between March and December 2022.
2.2.3 Screening and selection of studies
The inclusion criteria were based on title and abstract, a common procedure used in many review studies (Dukuzumuremyi et al., 2020; Maïga et al., 2020; Ngwili et al., 2021). Once the title and abstract of the article failed to concisely elaborate on issues dealing with the economic valuation of agro-meteorological services, the paper was dropped from the analysis.
2.2.4 Article management, data coding and extraction
The retrieved articles were organised and managed using Zotero, which facilitated the identification and removal of duplicate entries, ensuring a well-curated and streamlined database for analysis. A double review process was conducted. Thus, a single reviewer (one member of the research team) assessed studies for inclusion eligibility based on title and abstract and then the other team member repeated the process independently by randomly select 50% of the articles to reinforce consistency. Exclusion or inclusion eligibility was resolved through consensus where disagreements arose. A data extraction sheet was then developed in Excel to facilitate the organisation and coding of key characteristics essential for addressing the research question. These characteristics included the first author’s name, year of publication, continent, country of study, methodological approach used to estimate the economic value, and the quantified value of agro-meteorological services in US$. This structured approach ensured consistency in data handling, enabling a comprehensive and systematic synthesis of the reviewed literature.
2.2.5 Data analysis and presentation
Key findings from the review were summarised and presented mostly in tables for clear visualisation and interpretation. In addition to descriptive statistics, a meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively synthesise the data and estimate the aggregated economic value of agro-meteorological services based on existing literature. This dual approach enabled a robust examination of the topic, integrating both qualitative insights and quantitative estimations to provide a comprehensive understanding of the economic value of agro-meteorological services.
Meta-analysis has recently gained prominence as a robust analytical method for synthesising evidence on a specific topic by integrating findings from various published studies (Born et al., 2021; Santeramo and Lamonaca, 2019; Stanley et al., 2008). Using the random effects meta-regression model, this study combines empirical estimates from different but comparable studies to provide a unified understanding of the issue in question. One key tool in meta-analysis is the I2 statistic, which measures heterogeneity or the degree of variation among studies. A value of 0% indicates no heterogeneity, while values of 25–50%, 51–74, and 75% or more indicate low, moderate, and high heterogeneity, respectively (Afshin et al., 2017; Higgins et al., 2003). Larger I2 values suggest greater variability in the findings across studies. Additionally, meta-analysis employs a weighting function approach to generate a forest plot, which in this case, visually represents the estimated economic value from each study (in billion US$) and then the pooled economic value of agro-meteorological services and the heterogeneity among studies.
Unlike the traditional way of literature review, this approach provides a more comprehensive estimation of the economic value of agro-meteorological services while accounting for study-specific variations (Dettori et al., 2021; Verhagen and Ferreira, 2014). The forest plot offers readers a concise and graphical synthesis of the results, making it easier to interpret the aggregated findings. The covariates used in this study were valuation methodology, which includes dummy variables (1-yes and 0 Simulation modelling) on contingent valuation (CV), choice experiment (CE) and benefit–cost analysis (BC). The moderating effect of Year of publication (YP) and level of analysis (Meso and Macro-level vs. Micro-level analysis) were also explored. The regional dummies R (America – AM, Australia-Au, Asia – As, SSA Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA vs. Global) were also used to assess the regional effects. By quantifying economic value while accounting for heterogeneity, meta-analysis offers a powerful and transparent tool for demonstrating the economic value of agro-meteorological services. This evidence-based approach strengthens the case for investment by revealing not only average benefits but also how and why impacts differ across contexts—insights that are not attainable through conventional literature reviews. Nevertheless, due to the limited heterogeneity observed, we reported pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity metrics via the forest plot, as these offer clearer insights aligned with the study objectives.
3 Results
3.1 Characteristics of reviewed articles
A total of 1,406 articles were identified from the literature search. After careful screening and removal of duplicates, 69 articles met the inclusion criteria and were reviewed (including five articles obtained through a reference list), as shown in the flow diagram (Figure 1). For all the eligible articles, the full-text review was conducted, and findings are discussed in succeeding sections and subsections. The following characteristics were extracted and presented in table format (Table 1): first author name, year of publication, country of study, methods of eliciting economic value and total estimated economic value of agro-meteorological services. Out of the 69 articles reviewed, a total of 27 met the additional criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis.
The temporal distribution of studies reveals a clear concentration in recent years, with approximately 60% of reviewed articles published after 2010. Notable publication peaks occurred in 2002, 2016, and 2021, each featuring multiple studies, while the period between 1995 and 2005 saw relatively few articles, typically one or two per year. This trend reflects growing academic and policy interest in the economic valuation of agro-meteorological services, driven by increasing climate variability, advances in climate modelling, and the integration of agro-meteorological services into agricultural and development planning.
Recent publications also report higher average economic values compared to earlier studies, suggesting a shift toward national-scale assessments and the use of improved modelling techniques. Overall, this temporal pattern indicates that both the volume of research and the magnitude of reported economic benefits have increased over time, underscoring the expanding role of agro-meteorological services in agricultural decision-making and policy decisions. This also concurs with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030) and the United Nations (UN)‘s Early Warnings for All (EW4All) Initiative, which aims to ensure everyone, everywhere, is covered by early warning systems by 2027.
From a geographical perspective, the distribution of studies is highly uneven across continents. The Americas account for the largest share (around 37%), followed by Asia (26%), while Africa (15%), Australia (11%), and Europe (11%) are significantly less represented. This imbalance reflects disparities in research capacity, data availability, and funding for economic valuation studies. Regions with stronger institutional support and established climate services and early warning systems tend to produce more frequent and comprehensive assessments.
Continental differences also emerge in reported economic values. Studies from the Americas report the highest average estimates, largely due to the prevalence of macro-level and national analyses. In contrast, research from Africa and Australia is predominantly micro-level, resulting in lower average valuations. Despite high exposure to climate risks, these regions remain underrepresented in large-scale valuation research, underscoring a critical gap and the need for more comprehensive economic valuation of agro-meteorological services in vulnerable areas.
3.2 Varied benefits of agro-meteorological services
Seasonal agro-meteorological information provides multiple dividends to farmers as an early warning signal for early action. Generally, accurate agro-meteorological forecasts of at least 3 months lead time allow farmers to implement optimal farming decisions in a changing climate context (Bruno Soares, 2017; Jones et al., 2000). Such decisions include scheduling land preparation and planting dates, choosing optimal crop varieties, deciding crop density, irrigation scheduling, rate & timing of fertiliser and pesticide application, as well as managing field operations (Adams et al., 2003; Bert et al., 2006; Patt et al., 2005; Roudier et al., 2016; Takle et al., 2014; Tarchiani et al., 2018). In Zimbabwe, for example, the use of weather forecasts resulted in farmers adjusting farming decisions, including altering planting dates, planting different crop varieties and staggering planting dates (Mudombi and Nhamo, 2014; Patt et al., 2005; Zamasiya et al., 2017). In Senegal, the use of weather forecasts also resulted in the uptake of optimal farming practices, such as planting suitable crop varieties, which led to a 10–25% increase in household incomes (Chiputwa et al., 2022).
Implementation of tailored production strategies and taking advantage of favourable weather conditions, as guided by weather forecasts also helps farmers to minimise losses (Anaman et al., 2017; Jones et al., 2000; Quiroga et al., 2011). For instance, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) estimated that the use of weather forecasts has the potential to reduce yield loss and variability by 10–30% (FAO, 2019). Weather forecasts help farmers to save time and costs in agricultural activities (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b). Acting ahead of a predicted drought through the implementation of anticipatory actions such as growing drought-tolerant rice varieties in the Philippines between 2018 and 2019 helped farmers to prevent losses of US$101 in avoided input costs, and households reaped US$4.4 for every dollar invested (FAO, 2020). Cost reduction in agricultural production has also been noted through the use of enhanced weather forecast information. Cotton producers in Australia had a 1% cost reduction between 1994 and 1996 due to the use of improved weather forecasts (Anaman et al., 1998; Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b). Other benefits also include assisting in the planning of household and social activities as well as reducing the risks of assets/property damage and/or human death in case of extreme weather events (Anaman et al., 1998, 2017; Gros et al., 2022; de la Tozier Poterie et al., 2018). Humanitarian actors also rely on weather forecast information to implement anticipatory action interventions such as anticipatory cash transfers (Gros et al., 2019, 2022; de la Tozier Poterie et al., 2022; de la Tozier Poterie et al., 2018).
3.3 The economic value of agro-meteorological services
Since the seminal work by Nelson and Winter (1964) which formalised the theoretical valuation of weather forecasts, based on neoclassical economic theories, the economic valuation of meteorological services has increased substantially. The body of literature in the particular area of agro-meteorological services also increased with the specialised work on agro-meteorology of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the launch of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) in 1950 and 2009, respectively (An-Vo et al., 2021; Hewitt et al., 2020; Hewitt and Stone, 2021). The increase of studies which estimate the economic value of agro-meteorological services also signifies the growing awareness about climate change and the need for climate services to strengthen resilience and anticipatory action (Gros et al., 2019; Hewitt et al., 2020; Mjelde et al., 1998; de la Tozier Poterie et al., 2023; de la Tozier Poterie et al., 2018; WMO, 2015, 2022). Furthermore, this is motivated by the increasing momentum and a call for evidence to influence policy towards increased investments in the delivery of improved climate services (WMO, 2015, 2021, 2022). As countries across the globe are at different stages of operationalising National Frameworks for Climate Services in line with GFCS guidelines, research studies assessing the value and use of weather forecasts are also increasing (Hewitt et al., 2020).
Valuation of public goods and services, such as agro-meteorological services require a full understanding of non-rival and non-exclusiveness concepts embodied in goods and services (Anaman et al., 1998, 2017; Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b; Freebairn and Zillman, 2002). Apart from being provided free of charge by Governments, agro-meteorological services are non-rival in consumption since the use by one farmer does not reduce their availability (both in terms of quality and quantity) to the other farmers (Anaman et al., 1998). This concept is sometimes referred to as the indivisibility property of public goods. Again, agro-meteorological services are non-exclusive since an individual farmer cannot exclude other farmers from using the services. Thus, the agro-meteorological services possess the non-rival and non-exclusiveness properties just like any other public goods and services (Anaman et al., 1998, 2017; Freebairn and Zillman, 2002). However, it is important to note that agro-meteorological services are not virtually free although they are provided at no direct cost to farmers through mass media.
Beyond the use of market prices, there are four main broad methods used in literature to estimate the economic value of agro-meteorological services. These are: (1) valuation based on contingent valuation and choice modelling methods (stated preference approaches), (2) valuation based on revealed preference approaches such as the hedonic pricing method and the travel cost or the general expenditures incurred to consume or use resources concept, (3) valuation using simulation modelling, and (4) producer and consumer surpluses mostly based on general equilibrium models, input–output analysis and benefit-transfer approaches. Generally, the reviewed articles showed that there is a substantial economic value of agro-meteorological services in the agriculture sector across the globe.
The meta-analysis estimated the annual economic value of agro-meteorological services at US$0.59 billion (US$590 million), highlighting that these services provide over half a billion dollars in perceived economic benefits to the global agricultural economy annually (Figure 2). This substantial valuation underscores the critical role of agro-meteorological services in enhancing agricultural productivity and supporting the implementation of climate risk reduction strategies globally. This evidence also concurs with other previous studies, which showed that there is a substantial economic value of agro-meteorological services globally (Mjelde et al., 1998). Thus, the use of agro-meteorological services increases the societal net benefits.
Figure 2. Forest plot showing a summary of the estimated economic value of agro-meteorological services. Source: authors’ computation.
The I2 statistic of 48.7% (Figure 2) indicates that the variation between studies is relatively low, suggesting a consistent valuation of agro-meteorological services by farmers across different contexts and valuation approaches. This finding highlights the universally recognised importance of these services in supporting agricultural decision-making and risk-reduction strategies. This consistent valuation also underscores the need for continued investment in agro-meteorological services to support global agricultural productivity and resilience. Given this limited heterogeneity, we did not conduct additional analyses, such as subgroup meta-analysis by valuation approach or exploration of heterogeneity drivers. Instead, we focused on reporting pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity measures (Figure 2), which we consider more informative and aligned with the objectives of this study. The estimated economic values across various countries and based on different valuation techniques are presented in sub-sections 3.3.1 to 3.3.4 below.
3.3.1 Economic value of agro-meteorological services based on stated preference approaches
Under the stated preference approach, a hypothetical market will be created to elicit farmers’ willingness to pay for agro-meteorological services (Amegnaglo et al., 2017). The hypothetical markets are created since there are no observed market transactions. Thus, non-market valuation methods are commonly used in this case. The contingent valuation method and choice modelling are the most used techniques under the stated preference approach (Anaman et al., 1998; Freebairn and Zillman, 2002; Paparrizos et al., 2021; Tesfaye et al., 2019). Under these techniques, the maximum amount farmers are willing to pay is then used as the economic value of agro-meteorological services. On average, an individual farmer is willing to pay US$43.3/year to receive agro-meteorological services rather than to be without the services. The average annual economic value of agro-meteorological services based on stated preference approaches is estimated at US$8.89 billion (Table 1).
3.3.2 Economic value of agro-meteorological services based on revealed preference approaches
In situations where market transactions can be observed, revealed preference methods (market prices) can be applied (Amegnaglo et al., 2022). Under this approach, the travel cost method is the most commonly used technique to value agro-meteorological services in recent years (Amegnaglo et al., 2022; Douglas and Taylor, 1998). In this case, farmers pay for customised agro-meteorological services up to a unit where the marginal value equals the price (Freebairn and Zillman, 2002). As such, the total expenses incurred to acquire the agro-meteorological services are used to reflect the economic value of agro-meteorological services. These total expenses can also include telephone costs and time costs incurred by farmers in searching for and receiving weather forecast information (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996a). In Australia (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996a), the general expenses method was used to estimate the minimum economic value of public weather services. They estimated a minimum value of 2.868 million Australian dollars during the 1994/95 financial year. In Benin (Amegnaglo et al., 2022), the economic value of indigenous weather forecast information was estimated using the travel cost method. They estimated a minimum value of US$7010.75 among 354 maize farmers.
The hedonic pricing approach originally proposed by Rosen (1974) is also a revealed preference technique that can be employed to estimate the economic value of weather forecast information (Anaman et al., 2017). Following Rosen (1974), the price or cost of weather forecast information is a function of a bundle of weather forecast characteristics. For instance, accuracy of weather forecast, lead time, ease of understanding and relevance can influence the price of weather forecast information (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996a; Figini et al., 2022). Thus, farmers’ willingness to pay for improvement in agro-meteorological services can be derived from the relationship between the revealed price of weather forecast information and its associated attributes (Anaman et al., 2017; Rosen, 1974). The hedonic pricing approach has been extensively applied in property and labour markets as well as economic valuation of environmental amenities (Donnelly, 1991; Freeman, 1981; Gibbons et al., 2014; Rosen, 1974). Nevertheless, application of the hedonic pricing approach in estimating the economic value of agro-meteorological services is still limited since most available studies focused on transport and tourism sectors (Anaman et al., 2000; Campos et al., 1999; Leigh, 1995; Leigh et al., 1998; von Gruenigen et al., 2014).
3.3.3 Economic value of agro-meteorological services based on simulation modelling
Simulation modelling can also be employed through cost function analysis and cost-loss ratio techniques to estimate the economic value of agro-meteorological services (Fernandez et al., 2016; Makaudze, 2016; Mjelde et al., 1998). Simulation modelling, particularly ex-ante crop simulation models, is widely used to estimate the impacts of utilizing improved seasonal weather forecast information on agricultural production outcomes, such as production costs, net returns, and crop yields. These models provide valuable insights into the expected benefits of agro-meteorological services, including increased profitability and cost reductions. By aligning with the fundamental principles of economic theory—such as cost minimization and profit maximisation—simulation modelling reinforces the economic rationale for integrating agro-meteorological services into farming practices, demonstrating their utility in optimizing agricultural productivity and resilience (Freebairn and Zillman, 2002; Meza et al., 2008). Simulation modelling can employ either static or dynamic approaches, each offering distinct advantages depending on the context. Static simulation models assume a single climate event, providing a straightforward analysis of its impact on agricultural production.
In contrast, dynamic simulation models allow for adjustments to the production system by incorporating multiple climate events occurring throughout the production period. This dynamic approach enables a more realistic and nuanced understanding of how input decisions can be optimised in response to changing climatic conditions, offering greater insights into the complexities of agricultural systems and the benefits of agro-meteorological services (Hill et al., 2004; Mjelde et al., 1988, 1998). Farm-level ex-ante simulation studies have demonstrated that agro-meteorological services provide substantial economic benefits. On average, the estimated value of these services is approximately US$504.8 per hectare, assuming moderate fluctuations in output prices (Table 2). This valuation highlights the significant potential of agro-meteorological services to enhance agricultural profitability and resilience by optimising decision-making in response to weather and climate variability. This is based on increased net profits through the use of improved weather forecast information.
3.3.4 Economic value of agro-meteorological services based on producer and consumer surplus
Producer and consumer surpluses provide an alternative approach to estimating the direct economic benefits of agro-meteorological services (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996c). Producer surplus reflects the additional income that farmers gain from utilising improved weather and climate information, while consumer surplus represents the benefits that consumers receive through improved food availability, quality, or affordability resulting from optimised agricultural production. Together, these surpluses offer a comprehensive measure of the economic value generated by agro-meteorological services within agricultural markets. For example, in the USA, Canada and Australia, wheat producers captured economic surpluses through the use of seasonal weather forecasts (Hill et al., 2004). At the macroeconomic level, general equilibrium models and input–output analysis are valuable tools for assessing the broader economic impact of seasonal weather forecasts in agriculture. These approaches capture the interconnectedness between consumers and industries, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of how improved weather forecasts influence agricultural productivity, supply chains, and market dynamics. By modelling these interdependencies, these methods provide insights into the ripple effects of agro-meteorological services on national and regional economies (Bruno Soares et al., 2018). For example, Frei (2010) estimated a minimum of US$111.75 economic and social benefits of weather forecasts in Switzerland. However, the application of these techniques is limited since data of social accounting matrices, especially in Africa, are of poor quality and, in some cases, difficult to access. The reviewed literature reveals that agro-meteorological services generate significant economic benefits at the societal level. Using various macroeconomic models, the average annual economic benefits attributed to the use of these services are estimated at US$14.24 billion (Table 3).
3.4 Current and preferred form and type of media to receive weather forecast services among farmers
Print media, television, radios and extension agents are the traditional means mostly used to convey weather forecast messages to farmers (Hansen et al., 2019; Makaudze, 2016; Rasmussen et al., 2014). The relative use and importance of these different forms of media differ from one continent, region and country to another. However, these dissemination platforms are insufficient, especially in Africa, since most farmers do not have access to print media and do not own a television or a radio set. Again, the language used through these communication channels, in most cases, is not convenient for smallholder farmers to decode and translate weather forecasts into action at the farm level (Grey, 2019). Furthermore, dwindling budget allocation towards agricultural extension delivery in most countries also renders challenges for farmers to access weather forecasts through extension agents (Owolabi and Yekinni, 2022). Nevertheless, given an increase in mobile phone penetration in recent years, most farmers are increasingly interested in receiving agricultural advice, including weather forecast information through mobile phones (Djido et al., 2021; Etwire et al., 2017). Farmers prefer mostly text and voice messages of weather forecast information in local languages (Chiputwa et al., 2022; Etwire et al., 2017; Rasmussen et al., 2014).
4 Discussion
Generally, investments in advanced meteorological infrastructure are justified by the magnitude of societal benefits they generate. Consequently, national meteorological and hydrological services increasingly face pressure to provide robust, quantitative evidence demonstrating the returns to public investment, particularly in agriculture, where weather and climate services directly influence production decisions, risk management, and resilience to climate variability. The findings of this review respond directly to this need by synthesising empirical evidence showing substantial and growing economic benefits of agro-meteorological services across diverse contexts. The estimated global annual value of approximately US$590 million reinforces the argument that investments in agro-meteorological services yield returns that far exceed their costs. Such evidence strengthens the policy case for sustained and increased public funding to expand, modernise, and tailor agro-meteorological services to farmers’ needs (Amegnaglo et al., 2017; Perrels et al., 2013; WMO, 2015).
The review revealed that the primary methods used to estimate the economic value of agro-meteorological services include contingent valuation, choice experiments, travel cost methods, and simulation techniques, such as crop yield or net returns modelling (Amegnaglo et al., 2017, 2022; Jones et al., 2000; Makaudze, 2016; Mjelde et al., 1998; Ouédraogo et al., 2018; Paparrizos et al., 2021; Park et al., 2016; Rollins and Shaykewich, 2003; Tesfaye et al., 2019; Yu et al., 2008; Yuan et al., 2016). In addition to these techniques, producer surpluses and benefit–cost ratios were also be employed to estimate the economic value of agro-meteorological services (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b). Overall, there exists a considerable total economic value of agro-meteorological services globally. Across different locations and contexts, it has been noted that accuracy, a lead time of at least 3 months ahead, ease of understanding and location-specific forecasts are critical attributes for agro-meteorological services to be useful among farmers (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b; Dinh, 2020; Fernandez et al., 2016; Jones et al., 2000; Makaudze, 2016; Marshall et al., 1996; Mjelde et al., 1998; Yu et al., 2008; Zinyengere et al., 2011). Dissemination channels, especially through mobile phone also enhance farmers’ propensity to use weather forecast information to tailor farming decisions (Chiputwa et al., 2022; Djido et al., 2021; Etwire et al., 2017).
Despite the strong evidence on economic value, the review reveals a notable gap in the literature regarding political economy dimensions that shape both the provision and valuation of agro-meteorological services. Most existing studies are firmly rooted in neoclassical economic frameworks and focus on individual farmers’ willingness to pay, typically estimated through micro-level analyses that assume rational decision-making and well-functioning information environments. While these approaches provide important insights into private benefits, they pay limited attention to broader political, institutional, and social factors that influence who accesses services, how benefits are distributed, and why investments may be constrained. As a result, current valuation estimates may understate or misrepresent the true societal value of agro-meteorological services, particularly in contexts characterised by inequality, weak institutions, or infrastructural deficits.
Funding for agro-meteorological services are inherently political process, shaped by power relations, governance structures, and competing development priorities. As highlighted by this review, economic valuation alone is insufficient to explain investment outcomes without accounting for the political, economic, social, and cultural contexts in which agro-meteorological services are produced and used (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Mubaya and Mafongoya, 2017; Munoz-Carrier et al., 2020; Tanner and Allouche, 2011). Political economy analysis provides a critical lens for understanding how factors such as marginalisation, social class, trust in institutions, governance quality, and participation in decision-making influence both the perceived and realised value of agro-meteorological services. Integrating political economy perspectives with neoclassical valuation approaches can therefore yield a more comprehensive economic valuation and provide insights on how investments can be better targeted to enhance equity, effectiveness, and resilience (Ruth, 2010; Di Gregorio et al., 2019; Mubaya and Mafongoya, 2017; Vaughan et al., 2018).
Institutional arrangements and governance processes emerge as particularly important determinants of value. Government policies, regulatory frameworks, and coordination among meteorological agencies, extension services, and local institutions can either enable or constrain farmers’ ability to benefit from weather forecasts (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Hansen, 2002; Jones et al., 2000; Mjelde et al., 1996). For instance, the legitimacy of the weather forecast communicators is fundamental to the value and use of agro-meteorological services (Patt and Gwata, 2002). Religious factors and power dynamics between farmers and producers of weather forecasts, as well as local governance structures, also determine the benefits and use of weather forecasts at the local level (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Patt and Gwata, 2002). Institutional arrangements in communicating seasonal weather forecasts also imply the value and use of forecasts among farmers (Patt and Gwata, 2002). Thus, a delay in disseminating seasonal weather forecasts to farmers due to bureaucratic communication protocols within government agencies limits the value and relevance of forecasts to farmers. These findings underscore the importance of institutional reforms and improved stakeholder coordination as complementary investments alongside technical improvements in forecasting capacity.
Furthermore, the review also highlights a methodological imbalance in existing research, which predominantly captures farmers’ perspectives while largely overlooking the views of elites and decision-makers. Policymakers, politicians, and traditional leaders play a decisive role in shaping national priorities, allocating resources, and legitimising agro-meteorological services within broader development agendas (Ayittey, 2022). By neglecting these actors, many valuation studies fail to capture the political drivers of investment decisions and service delivery outcomes. Incorporating elite perspectives would improve understanding of how policy priorities are set and how evidence on economic value is translated—or not—into actual investments.
Given the central role of elites in designing and implementing climate service strategies, future research should adopt mixed-methods approaches that integrate quantitative valuation with qualitative political economy analysis (Ayittey, 2022; Soko et al., 2023). Examining the interactions among markets, communities, and the state would enable a more holistic assessment of the factors shaping investment decisions and farmers’ willingness to pay (Manzvera and Anaman, 2024). Such an approach would also help explain observed disparities in geographical coverage and scale of valuation studies, particularly the underrepresentation of vulnerable regions such as Africa in macro-level assessments.
Finally, the review identifies limited empirical attention to the economic value of indigenous weather forecasting systems. Although a few studies have begun to quantify the benefits of indigenous forecasts, this remains an underexplored area despite their widespread use among smallholder farmers, particularly in Africa (Amegnaglo et al., 2022; Gbangou et al., 2021; Gwenzi et al., 2016; Kalanda-Joshua et al., 2011; Radeny et al., 2019; Roncoli et al., 2002). Integrating indigenous knowledge systems with modern agro-meteorological services offers significant potential to enhance trust, relevance, and uptake of forecasts (Hiwasaki et al., 2014; Kalanda-Joshua et al., 2011). Evidence from contexts such as Zimbabwe demonstrates that alignment between scientific and indigenous forecasts can substantially improve usability and decision-making. Expanding research in this area would not only enrich valuation evidence but also support more inclusive and context-sensitive climate service design (Patt and Gwata, 2002).
Like other studies, this research has some limitations. First, the review was limited to articles published in English, which may have excluded relevant studies in other languages and introduced potential language bias. Second, although most reviewed studies reported economic values in US$, estimates from Australia required conversion using prevailing exchange rates at the time of review rather than those applicable when the original studies were conducted. Given exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, this may have led to slight over- or underestimation of reported values. Finally, the review focused exclusively on the agricultural sector; therefore, the economic value of weather and climate services in other sectors, such as transport, aviation, mining, and tourism, was not assessed. Future research incorporating these sectors would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the overall economic value of weather and climate services across the economy.
5 Conclusion and recommendations
This paper synthesises empirical evidence on the economic value of agro-meteorological services through a comprehensive review of international literature and a meta-analysis. The findings demonstrate that agro-meteorological services generate substantial economic value, with an estimated average annual value of US$0.59 billion (US$590 million). These services play a crucial role in enhancing agricultural productivity, improving decision-making, and mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability and change. The evidence highlights the importance of sustained investment in advanced meteorological infrastructure and forecasting capacity, including modern equipment and communication systems, to deliver accurate, timely, and location-specific information. Such investments should be regarded not as recurrent costs, but as high-return public goods that yield significant societal benefits and strengthen agricultural resilience.
Despite the clear economic value identified, the review reveals important gaps in understanding the political, economic, and institutional factors that shape investment decisions and service delivery outcomes. Future research should therefore integrate political economy analysis to better explain how governance structures, power relations, institutional capacity, and policy priorities influence the development, allocation, and funding of agro-meteorological services. Political economy analysis provides a complementary framework to neoclassical valuation approaches by capturing the roles of markets, communities, and the state in shaping access, equity, and effectiveness. Greater attention to the perspectives of policymakers, politicians, and community leaders is particularly important, as these actors play a central role in determining investment priorities and the sustainability of meteorological services.
Another key priority for future research is the systematic integration of modern agro-meteorological services with indigenous weather knowledge systems, especially in regions dominated by smallholder agriculture, such as Africa. While modern forecasting technologies have been widely evaluated, indigenous forecasting systems remain underrepresented in economic valuation studies despite their long-standing use and cultural relevance. Exploring complementarities between scientific and indigenous knowledge can enhance trust, improve relevance, and increase farmers’ uptake of weather information. Such integration also supports co-production approaches that strengthen local ownership of climate services and improve their effectiveness in building climate resilience.
The review also highlights that existing studies place limited emphasis on the broader, economy-wide benefits of agro-meteorological services beyond the farm level. Improved agricultural outcomes can generate significant spillover effects through linkages with agribusiness, food processing, trade, and employment. These indirect benefits can be rigorously quantified using macroeconomic tools such as input–output analysis, social accounting matrices, and computable general equilibrium models. Incorporating these approaches into future research would enable a more comprehensive estimation of the total economic value of agro-meteorological services and strengthen the case for increased public investment in meteorological infrastructure.
In conclusion, while the evidence confirms that agro-meteorological services deliver substantial economic value, a more comprehensive understanding of their impact requires moving beyond narrow valuation frameworks guided by neoclassical theories. Addressing political economy constraints, integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge systems, and quantifying economy-wide spillover effects are critical for improving policy design and investment decisions. Future research that adopts these integrated approaches will better inform policymakers, promote equitable and effective service delivery, and ensure that investments in agro-meteorological services are sustained and aligned with long-term agricultural and development goals.
Data availability statement
The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.
Author contributions
JM: Investigation, Writing – review & editing, Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Funding acquisition, Resources, Project administration, Formal analysis, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Data curation. KA: Supervision, Data curation, Writing – review & editing, Validation, Conceptualization, Investigation.
Funding
The author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. This work was supported by the Partnership for Skills in Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology-Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund (PASET RSIF) PhD Scholarship and Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Conflict of interest
The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Generative AI statement
The author(s) declared that Generative AI was not used in the creation of this manuscript.
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Keywords: agro-meteorological services, climate change, meta-analysis, meteorological services, weather forecasts
Citation: Manzvera J and Anaman KA (2026) Economic value of agro-meteorological services: a review of the international literature. Front. Clim. 8:1741828. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2026.1741828
Edited by:
Anthony Lupo, University of Missouri, United StatesReviewed by:
Muhammad Shahid, Brunel University London, United KingdomMori W. Gouroubera, Alliance Bioversity International and CIAT, Senegal
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*Correspondence: Joseph Manzvera, bWFuenZlcmFqb3NlcGhAZ21haWwuY29t
Kwabena Asomanin Anaman