Climate Change Perspectives of Coffee Farmers in Junín Mountain Tropical Forests and CMIP5 Projections

Alexis Nicolás Ibañez-Blancas^1,2*José Miguel Sanchez-Uscategui³Zoila Aurora Cruz-Burga⁴Julio Alberto Chavez-Achong⁵

• ¹Department of Physics and Meteorology, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru
• ²Instituto de la Pequeña Producción Sustentable, UNALM, Lima, Peru
• ³Department of Economics and Planning, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru
• ⁴Faculty of Forestry Sciences. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru
• ⁵Department of Rural Sociology. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru

Background: Climate change poses a remarkable challenge for farmers due to its profound impact on ecosystems. Certain crops, such as coffee, are particularly sensitive. In Peru, global climate models project increasing temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, and intensified droughts. These changes are compelling coffee growers to explore various strategies to confront these challenges. Objective: This study examined the perspectives of coffee producers in the tropical mountain forests of Chanchamayo Province on extreme weather events and compared them with projections from global climate models. Methods: A total of 253 surveys were conducted through stratified random sampling with efficient allocation among members of two local coffee cooperatives. In addition, precipitation and temperature data from 1981 to 2016 were analyzed alongside projections from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). Extreme events were projected from 2030 to 2065 using the CLIMDEX methodology, and logistic regression models were employed to examine the relationship between preparedness for climate changes and extreme events, incorporating variables such as gender, education, origin, and occupation. Results: Variations in humidity, rainfall, hours of sunshine and coffee plantation behavior influenced the degree of preparedness among coffee growers. Consistent with the statistical models, farmers who perceived significant climatic changes were significantly more likely to adopt adaptation measures, showing a 31.3% increase in the probability of taking preparatory actions. Climate models and observed trends indicated that temperatures in Chanchamayo could increase by ≤3 °C from 2030 to 2065, accompanied by a reduction in annual accumulated rainfall by ≤400 mm. Farmers already reported experiencing drought and increasing temperatures, and projections suggested that these will intensify by 2065, with higher temperatures and reduced rainfall. Conclusion: This study underscores the importance of integrating local perspectives with global climate projections to design more effective adaptation strategies. Integrating insights of farmers into agricultural policies could strengthen the resilience of coffee production systems to climate change.