ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Translational and Clinical Endocrinology
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fendo.2025.1598171
This article is part of the Research TopicThe Role of Normal Blood Lipid Levels in Metabolic and Endocrine DiseasesView all articles
Association of triglyceride glucose index with incident diabetes among individuals with normal fasting triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose values: a general population-based retrospective cohort study
Provisionally accepted- 1Clinical Laboratory, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
- 2Department of traditional Chinese Medicine Dermatology, Chaoyang District Taiyanggong Community Health Service Center, Beijing,100028, China, Beijing, China
- 3School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China
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The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index has been proposed as a reliable surrogate marker for insulin resistance. Previous studies have demonstrated a significant positive association between the TyG index and diabetes risk. However, whether this association persists among individuals with normal fasting triglyceride (TG) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the TyG index and diabetes in this specific population utilizing a large-scale population-based dataset.Methods: A total of 155,337 subjects (74,622 males and 80,715 females) were included in this retrospective cohort study. The TyG index was calculated using the formula: ln [TG (mg/dL) × GLU (mg/dL) / 2]. Cox regression analyses were utilized to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A generalized additive model (GAM), combined with smooth curve fitting, was employed to investigate potential nonlinear associations. Subgroup analyses were stratified by age, sex, body mass index, and family history of diabetes.Results: During a 3.13-year mean follow-up, 1127 subjects (0.73%) developed diabetes. After adjusting for confounding variables, subjects in the highest quartile of baseline TyG index exhibited an increased risk of diabetes compared to those in the lowest quartile (adjusted HR: 3.80; 95% CI: 2.41-5.99; P for trend < 0.001). Furthermore, a nonlinear threshold association was identified, with an inflection point at a TyG index value of 8.41. For subjects with a TyG index greater than 8.41, the adjusted HR was 15.33 (95% CI: 7.3-32.2, P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis revealed a stronger positive correlation in individuals aged <60 years.Discussion: This large-scale study demonstrates a robust independent association between the TyG index and diabetes risk in individuals with normal FPG and TG levels. Our findings suggest that a TyG index exceeding 8.41 correlates with a progressively higher risk of diabetes development. These results collectively suggest the TyG index could serve as a clinically relevant predictor of diabetes incidence in this population.
Keywords: Triglyceride glucose index, diabetes, cohort study, Risk factors, Inflection point
Received: 22 Mar 2025; Accepted: 26 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wang, Cheng, Zhang, Guo, Ma and Zhao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Liang Ma, Clinical Laboratory, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
Wei Zhao, Clinical Laboratory, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
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