ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Thyroid Endocrinology
Analysis of Independent Risk Factors and Construction of a Predictive Model for Thyroid Dysfunction in Early Pregnancy
Provisionally accepted
- 1Tumor Hospital Affiliated to Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
- 2Department of Blood transfusion, Affiliated Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
- 3Kuitun Hospital of Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture, Kuitun, China
- 4Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Ürümqi, Xinjiang Uyghur Region, China
- 5Bayinguoleng Mongol Autonomous Prefecture People's Hospital, Kuerle, China
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Introduction: Thyroid dysfunction during early pregnancy significantly impacts maternal and fetal health, with risks including preeclampsia, preterm birth, and developmental abnormalities. This study aims to identify independent risk factors and develop a predictive model to enable early diagnosis and intervention, improving pregnancy outcomes through tailored clinical management strategies. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the general information and relevant laboratory indicators of 2151 women in early pregnancy admitted to three Xinjiang hospitals from April 2021 to November 2024. The patients were divided into a normal thyroid function group (n=1490) and a thyroid dysfunction group (n=661). The test results were analyzed to screen for independent risk factors and constructed a predictive model. Results: Key findings revealed a 30.73% thyroid dysfunction incidence, including subclinical hypothyroidism (76.40%), hypothyroidism (12.86%), hyperthyroidism (6.35%), and subclinical hyperthyroidism (4.39%). Regional reference ranges were established as TSH (0.22–2.40) mIU/L and FT4 (13.54–20.26) pmol/L. Univariate analysis identified significant differences in A-TPO, A-TG, TSH, and FT3 (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis confirmed A-TPO, TSH and FT3 as independent risk factors. The prediction model demonstrated excellent performance with an AUC of 0.911 (95% CI: 0.891-0.932), 0.874 sensitivity, and 0.955 specificity. Conclusion: The study demonstrated that A-TPO, TSH and FT3 are independent risk factors for thyroid dysfunction in women during early pregnancy. A predictive model was constructed based on these three indicators. Validation of the model's performance indicated that it has good predictive capabilities.
Keywords: thyroid dysfunction, Risk factors, Prediction model, early pregnancy women, ROC Curve
Received: 19 May 2025; Accepted: 27 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Keremu, Yu, Zhao, Chen, Wang, Zhang, Guo and Ma. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Fan Guo, 02569@xjmu.edu.cn
Xiumin Ma, maxiumin1210@sohu.com
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