Geographic mapping and spatiotemporal patterns of tuberculosis in Libya within ten years' period (2015 to 2024)

Mohamed Ali DAW^1*Abdallah H El-Bouzedi²Saleh Ali Abumahara³Abdurrahman Khalifa Najjar³Nouri R Ben Ashur^3,4,5,6Alaa Grebi⁵Ali Fathi Alkarghali⁷Shahid Husayn^7,8Raja Khalid Miftah⁷Mohammed Saad Elbasha^3,8Asawer Seifennaser Doukali⁷Nosieba Taher Elmhidwi⁷Esra Othman Albouzaidi⁷Mohamed OMAR Ahmed⁹Amnnh Mohammed Dhu⁵Emad Elsgair Alzahra⁵Najmuldin abdulbasit abdulsamad⁸

• ¹Consultant, Department of Medical Microbiology & Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Tripoli-Libya, Libya
• ²Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Tripoli University, CC 82668, Tripoli, Libya, Tripoli, Libya
• ³Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine , Tripoli, Libya, Tripoli, Libya
• ⁴Department of Gynecology, Aljala Hospital Faculty of Medicine, University of Tripoli -LIBYA, Tripoli, Libya
• ⁵Department of Gynecology, Tripoli Medical Centre, Faculty of Medicine , Tripoli, Libya, Tripoli, Libya
• ⁶Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of Tripoli, LIBYA, Tripoli, Libya
• ⁷Faculty of Medicine, University of Tripoli-LIBYA, Tripoli, Libya
• ⁸Faculty of Medicine, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya, Tripoli, Libya
• ⁹Department of Microbiology & Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tripoli, CC 82668Libya., Tripoli, Libya

During the entire study period, 26478 TB cases were reported from all 22 municipalities in Libya with an annual rate of 40.29 /100,000 (95% CI: (40.229 ±9.01). The highest incidence was reported in 2015 and the lowest one in 2024. Males were significantly reported more than females among notified TB cases, (P < 0.001). The highest CNR was reported in the Eastern region followed by Western and Southern regions. The geospatial The spatial distribution of reported cases of TB varied greatly within the provinces and during the study period. There was evident variability throughout the country and over time. High-rate and low-rate clusters were predominantly distributed in the periods. High clusters were concentrated northeast and northwest, though low-level clusters were mainly located in the middle and the southern region of the country.The results of this study provided clear insights into the geographic and spatiotemporal mapping of TB in Libya. There was an overall decreasing trend in TB CNR from 2015 to 2024 parallel with high-risk and low-risk areas. This information should allow the decision-making personnel to implement proper policies to combat TB at national and regional levels.