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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Epidemiol.

Sec. Infectious Disease Epidemiology

Volume 5 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fepid.2025.1601976

This article is part of the Research TopicTowards Control of the HIV epidemic: Trends in Epidemiology and Emerging Drug Resistance in the Integrase Inhibitor EraView all 6 articles

Phylodynamics Analysis of HIV Epidemic History in Belarus in 1987-2022

Provisionally accepted
Alexander KirpichAlexander Kirpich1*Alina NemiraAlina Nemira1Ayotomiwa E AdeniyiAyotomiwa E Adeniyi1Aleksandr ShishkinAleksandr Shishkin1Anastasia S BunasAnastasia S Bunas2Natalya D KolomietsNatalya D Kolomiets3Irina N GlinskayaIrina N Glinskaya2Yuriy GankinYuriy Gankin4Elena L GasichElena L Gasich2Pavel SkumsPavel Skums5
  • 1Georgia State University, Atlanta, United States
  • 2Republican Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Public Health, Minsk, Belarus
  • 3Belarusian State Medical University, Minsk, City of Minsk, Belarus
  • 4Quantori, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States
  • 5University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, United States

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This paper presents the first systematic molecular epidemiology study of the HIV epidemic in Belarus, an Eastern European country that, like much of Eastern Europe and including the Post-Soviet region, has been largely understudied in relation to HIV epidemics. HIV sequences collected nationwide between January 2018 and May 2022 were analyzed using phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. The findings reveal two distinct epidemic waves spanning 1997-2005 and 2009-2018, each driven by different dominant modes of transmission. The study also identifies potential introductions and intra-country transmission routes, 1 Kirpich et al. Phylodynamics Analysis of HIV in Belarus in 1987-2022 emphasizing the pivotal role of the capital city and eastern industrial hubs within Belarus in shaping the epidemic's trajectory. This work addresses an important gap in understanding HIV dynamics in Eastern Europe.

Keywords: Belarus, HIV, phylodynamics, Molecular Epidemiology, infectious diseases

Received: 28 Mar 2025; Accepted: 26 Jun 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Kirpich, Nemira, Adeniyi, Shishkin, Bunas, Kolomiets, Glinskaya, Gankin, Gasich and Skums. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Alexander Kirpich, Georgia State University, Atlanta, United States

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