SYSTEMATIC REVIEW article
Front. Neurosci.
Sec. Decision Neuroscience
Neural Correlates of Uncertainty Processing: Meta-Analysis of fMRI Studies
Provisionally accepted
- National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
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Understanding neural mechanisms underlying decision-making under uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in cognitive neuroscience. This meta-analysis synthesized findings from 76 fMRI studies (N = 4,186) investigating neural correlates of uncertainty processing during decision-making tasks. Using Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE), we identified nine distinct activation clusters spanning cortical and subcortical regions, revealing a comprehensive neural network involved in uncertainty processing. Key findings demonstrated predominant activations in the anterior insula (up to 63.7% representation), inferior frontal gyrus (up to 40.7%), and inferior parietal lobule (up to 78.1%). The analysis revealed functional specialization between emotional-motivational processes (clusters 1-5) and cognitive processes (clusters 6-9), with notable bilateral activation patterns. The left anterior insula showed stronger association with reward evaluation, while the right anterior insula demonstrated involvement in learning and cognitive control. Similarly, the inferior frontal gyrus exhibited hemispheric specialization, with right-sided activation linked to impulse control and left-sided activation to motor planning. The findings extend current understanding of neural mechanisms facilitating decision-making under uncertainty and provide insights into potential clinical applications, particularly in developing interventions for individuals with uncertainty-related anxiety. This comprehensive mapping of neural signatures advances our knowledge of the distinct roles of key brain regions activated during decision-making processes under uncertainty, highlighting directions for future research in both cognitive neuroscience and clinical applications.
Keywords: uncertainty, decision-making, Meta-analysis, fMRI, Cascade model, ALE
Received: 08 Jul 2025; Accepted: 23 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Timashkov, Anderson and Zinchenko. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Andrey Timashkov, aytimashkov@hse.ru
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